Packaged snacks company Mondelez (NASDAQ: MDLZ) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2026 as sales rose 2.9% year on year to $9.58 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.67 per share was 10.2% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Mondelez (MDLZ) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
- Revenue: $9.58 billion vs analyst estimates of $9.79 billion (2.9% year-on-year growth, 2.1% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.67 vs analyst estimates of $0.61 (10.2% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.53 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.46 billion (16% margin, 5% beat)
- Operating Margin: 8.4%, up from 7.3% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue rose 3% year on year (beat)
- Sales Volumes were flat year on year (-3.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $75.13 billion
StockStory’s Take
Mondelez’s first quarter saw the company miss Wall Street’s revenue expectations but deliver adjusted earnings above consensus, as the market responded positively to better profitability and operational discipline. Management attributed the flat sales volumes to stable performance in developed markets, robust growth in emerging markets, and a strong Easter season for core categories like biscuits and chocolate. CEO Dirk Van de Put highlighted the resilience of snack demand despite fragile consumer confidence in Europe and the U.S., noting, “We had a good start of the year. The retailer negotiations are generally complete, and they are in line with our planning.”
Looking ahead, Mondelez’s guidance is shaped by cautious optimism, with management focused on reinvesting earnings gains into brand support and innovation. CFO Luca Zaramella described ongoing cost headwinds related to the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, but emphasized that any upside in earnings would be used to drive further momentum in emerging markets and key brands. Van de Put reiterated the company’s strategy to sharpen pricing and accelerate innovation, especially in well-being and premium product lines, stating, “We continue to build our global brands, and we can start doing some revenue growth management in these markets.”
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management linked the quarter’s margin expansion to improved supply chain productivity, targeted brand investment, and healthy performance in emerging markets, while navigating headwinds from global conflicts and shifting consumer sentiment.
- Emerging markets resilience: Growth in regions like India, Brazil, and China outpaced expectations, driven by strong consumer confidence and double-digit increases in chocolate and biscuits. The launch of Biscoff biscuits in India, which quickly sold out, exemplified the company’s ability to leverage global brands for local success.
- Developed market stabilization: While consumer confidence in Europe remained fragile and U.S. shoppers stayed cautious, Mondelez’s targeted pricing, promotional adjustments, and successful Easter campaigns led to improving share trends, particularly in European chocolate and North American crackers (notably Ritz).
- Innovation focus: The company accelerated new product launches in protein, fiber, and well-being segments, including gluten-free and zero-added-sugar versions of Oreo, as well as the expansion of premium chocolate lines like Toblerone Pralines and Cadbury & More. Management highlighted these as key drivers of differentiation and share gains.
- Supply chain and productivity gains: Investments in U.S. biscuit plant modernization and automation of distribution centers are expected to further increase efficiency, reduce costs, and enable more flexible packaging options for evolving retail channels such as club and value stores.
- Cost headwinds managed: Management acknowledged extra costs from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, which were offset by procurement improvements, favorable volume mix, and selective reinvestment of profit upside into A&C (advertising and consumer) spending and innovations.
Drivers of Future Performance
Mondelez’s outlook centers on reinvestment in core brands, supply chain upgrades, and navigating persistent geopolitical and commodity risks as it pursues steady revenue and profit growth.
- Brand and channel investment: Management plans to reinvest earnings into marketing support, innovation, and channel-specific formats, aiming to drive share gains even if overall category growth remains muted, especially in developed markets like the U.S. and Europe.
- Emerging market momentum: Mondelez sees continued strength in emerging markets as a long-term growth engine, citing underpenetrated categories and strong brand traction. Management expects ongoing distribution expansion and premiumization to support organic growth, particularly as consumer confidence recovers in markets like China.
- Cost and supply chain risks: The company faces ongoing risks from inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical instability (notably from the Middle East). Management is focused on supply chain flexibility, automation, and productivity to mitigate margin pressures, but flagged that regulated markets may limit cost pass-through, posing a potential profit headwind.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) the pace of emerging market growth and whether distribution and premiumization continue to drive strong organic sales, (2) the impact of supply chain modernization on cost efficiency and margin stability, and (3) signs of innovation-led share gains in core categories such as biscuits and chocolate. The ability to navigate commodity and geopolitical risks will also be a key determinant of future performance.
Mondelez currently trades at $59.65, up from $58.54 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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