What Happened?
Shares of beauty products company Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) fell 4.9% in the afternoon session after the company reported a sharp decline in sales for its fourth quarter and provided a weaker-than-expected forecast for the upcoming fiscal year. Revenue for the quarter fell 11.9% year on year to $3.41 billion, meeting Wall Street’s expectations. However, other key metrics disappointed investors. While adjusted earnings of $0.09 per share met analyst estimates, it marked a significant drop from $0.64 in the same quarter last year. Furthermore, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $180 million, substantially missing analyst projections of a $318.8 million profit. Compounding the weak results, Estée Lauder issued guidance for its 2026 fiscal year with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $1.90 and $2.10. The midpoint of this range is nearly 10% below the consensus analyst forecast, raising concerns about the company's profitability outlook.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Estée Lauder’s shares are very volatile and have had 20 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock dropped 6.5% on the news that markets pulled back amid hotter-than-expected inflation data. The main concern for investors was the July Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation. The higher-than-expected reading suggests that companies could face squeezed profit margins due to rising costs. This also reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which could further dampen economic activity. Compounding these inflation fears are multiple reports signaling a weakening consumer.
Estée Lauder is up 16.6% since the beginning of the year, but at $86.24 per share, it is still trading 14.4% below its 52-week high of $100.78 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Estée Lauder’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $434.95.
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