What Happened?
Shares of freight transportation and logistics provider Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) fell 34.8% in the afternoon session after the company reported weak first-quarter 2025 results, with its revenue and EBITDA both falling short of analysts' estimates, reflecting a tough start to the year. The real story was the sharp sales and profit declines, driven by weather-related disruptions, and weaker-than-expected March shipments. While revenue ticked up 4%, that modest gain masked deeper issues: growth in tonnage and shipments was undermined by a drop in revenue per unit, especially when excluding fuel surcharges, which fell more than 5%. The lack of typical seasonal acceleration in March also weighed heavily on performance. Overall, this was a softer quarter.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Saia? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What The Market Is Telling Us
Saia’s shares are very volatile and have had 21 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Saia and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 9 days ago when the stock dropped 5.7% on the news that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance on future monetary policy decisions during a speech in Chicago, emphasizing that trade tariffs could add upward pressure to inflation in the short term and complicate the Fed's efforts to stabilize the economy. He warned that such trade measures are "likely to move us further away from our goals," referring to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
The comments did little to improve sentiment, as major indices were already in the negative territory in the morning session after Nvidia announced it might be unable to sell some high-end chips (including the H20 chips) to China due to export controls and requirements from the Trump administration. As a result, the company planned to take a $5.5 billion charge due to inventory writedowns and canceled sales.
Adding to the sector's pressure, chip tool maker ASML posted weak bookings (a key demand indicator) which fell below Wall Street's expectations, noting that tariffs had made the industry's outlook more uncertain. Taken together, these updates likely fueled investor anxiety, amplifying concerns about global trade tensions, tech sector vulnerability, and the Fed's limited room to maneuver in an increasingly uncertain macro environment.
Saia is down 46.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $235.02 per share, it is trading 58.7% below its 52-week high of $569.08 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Saia’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,758.
Today’s young investors won’t have read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.
