The upcoming earnings report for Tesla (TSLA) represents a historic crossroads for the company. For years, the narrative was driven by undisputed dominance in the electric vehicle market. However, as we approach the Q1 reporting cycle, that story has changed. And not because CEO Elon Musk took a brief detour to work in government, instead of being in business with it.

The global appetite for EVs has chilled somewhat. In addition, the Chinese market has become more competitive for Tesla. The fundamental question for this quarter isn’t just about deliveries. Instead, it is about what TSLA intends to be for the remainder of the decade.

The primary focus has shifted from the assembly line to the neural network. With automotive margins facing sustained pressure from global price wars, Tesla’s Robotaxis and Optimus robotics programs are now becoming the core of the investment thesis for more and more investors. The evidence they are looking for? That Full Self-Driving is ready to transition Tesla from a hardware manufacturer into a high-margin software and autonomy powerhouse.

With earnings to be released after market close on Wednesday (4/22), here is a recent snapshot of TLSA’s history and estimates. What should jump out at you is the “Surprise” row. It shows that TSLA has missed for each of the past four quarters. 

And, selling at 292x forward earnings, it is not surprising that analysts are in show-me mode. More specifically, TSLA has been a dividing line for analysts, as evidenced by the high number of buys AND sells shown below. Those average out to a “Hold: rating. So a “high standard deviation,” if you will.

TSLA’s Stock Price Has Been All Over the Road 

Chart-wise, the daily picture below is uninspiring. But also not treacherous. This stock has been a notoriously volatile one. However, my best way to summarize it is “0 for the past 4.5 years.”

That’s what this weekly chart below shows us. TSLA has been to the moon and back (pardon the pun). A clean range of $100 a share to $500 a share. You know, as if those round numbers mean something (they do, to investors in a cult stock like this one). But since October 2021? Zero return. 

The narrative of transition away from heavy reliance on “selling EVs” to the next generation of this company is most intriguing to watch. It might also be the main string that bulls can pull on here going forward. Shown below, TSLA sells at more than 12x its earnings growth rate. And nearly 16x sales. That’s not just rich… that’s Elon Musk rich!

But the $1.4 trillion valuation shows just how much faith many investors still have in TSLA. There was a time when Amazon (AMZN) was a perennial innovator, expander, but non-earnings producer. That worked out just fine.

 For TSLA, it does have a “moat” of sorts, given how advanced it is in some areas of its business, space included. However, that’s now become more of the lead story that needs to work out, rather than the follow-on to the car business. Because the TSLA-as-a-car-company era is giving way to high expectations in those other business lines. 

The stock is notoriously volatile, and that Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) indicator at the bottom is hanging by a thread. I’d summarize TSLA, technically speaking, as a case of down to flat. But this is Elon Musk’s baby, and the rabid, loyal following of the stock makes every earnings day an “event.” 

Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob’s written research, check out ETFYourself.com.

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