Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-180974
May 3, 2013
world gold council
Gold Investor
Risk management and capital preservation
In this edition:
• Investmentcommentary: first quarter 2013
• Goldandcurrencies: protecting purchasing power
• GoldintheGreat Rotation
• Goldholdings:ampleroom for growth in a broad and liquid market
About the World Gold Council
The World Gold Council is the market development organisation
for the gold industry. Working within the investment, jewellery
and technology sectors, as well as engaging with governments
and central banks, our purpose is to provide industry leadership,
whilst stimulating and sustaining demand for gold.
We develop gold-backed solutions, services and markets based
on true market insight. As a result we create structural shifts in
demand for gold across key market sectors.
We provide insights into international gold markets, helping
people to better understand the wealth preservation qualities of
gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs
of society.
Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East, Europe
and the US, the World Gold Council is an association whose
members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies.
For more information
Please contact Investment Research:
Juan Carlos Artigas
juancarlos.artigas@gold.org
+1 212 317 3826
Johan Palmberg
johan.palmberg@gold.org
+44 20 7826 4773
Boris Senderovich
boris.senderovich@gold.org
+1 212 317 3882
Marcus Grubb
Managing Director and Strategist, Investment
marcus.grubb@gold.org
+44 20 7826 4724
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Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Contents
Foreword 02
I: Investment commentary: first quarter 2013 03
First quarter performance 03
A perspective on gold’s recent pullback 05
A decade shaped by structural changes 06
Two very different bull runs 08
What does the future hold? 09
References 10
II: Gold and currencies: protecting purchasing power 11
Is it not all about consumer price inflation? 13
Measuring purchasing power through exchange rates 16
Focus 1: Real effective exchange rates in summary 16
Holding gold as a strategy for preserving purchasing power 18
Focus 2: Gold and inflation 18
The role of gold in a world of fiat currencies 21
References 22
III: Gold in the Great Rotation 23
Gold and the Great Rotation 24
Focus 1: The Great Rotation debate 25
Gold in the Great Rotation 26
Focus 2. Why gold is a strategic asset 27
Bonds: handle with care 29
Gold’s perennial role 29
References 30
IV: Gold holdings: ample room for growth
in a broad and liquid market 31
Financial assets are growing at a rapid and
unsustainable rate 32
Focus 1: How large is the gold market? 34
A system vulnerable to the increasing frequency
and magnitude of tail events 35
Gold should be a larger share of financial assets 36
Focus 2: Benefits of holding gold in a portfolio 37
Focus 3: The importance of sustainable ownership rates 39
Taking a closer look at gold as a strategic asset 39
References 40
01
Foreword
Welcome to the second edition of Gold Investor, which includes a selection of the latest
investment research from the World Gold Council.
Gold has come under significant pressure over the past months. Following more than a year of
range-bound prices, an exceptional selloff in the middle of April has accentuated concerns that
gold’s bull run has come to an end.
In the short term, a stronger US dollar, fragile sentiment and worries over European central bank
gold sales will create a challenging environment for gold prices. In addition, the concentrated and
violent sell off in the second week of April will shake confidence in gold prices for some time,
but does not damage the long-term fundamental drivers or gold’s long-term strategic value. We
believe that despite the current turbulence, the fundamentals of the gold market remain well in
place. Physical demand for gold remains strong in India and China. Between them, they account
for over half of the annual global demand for gold. Further, irrespective of potential gold sales in
Cyprus, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been net buyers of gold for several
years and the conditions and objectives driving these purchases remain in place.
In addition, the continuing economic malaise in the OECD, high levels of accumulated
indebtedness, the ramp up of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan, and the continued effects of the
European sovereign debt crisis serve to remind investors that this economic and credit cycle is
different: the solutions will be protracted and the background level of investment risk is higher
than in the past. In our view, despite the recent and widely followed pullback in its price, gold has
never been more relevant as an investment asset and currency.
In this edition of Gold Investor, we examine the benefits of holding gold in an environment where
expansionary monetary policies and the resultant global imbalances in capital accumulation and
borrowing, imply significant levels of currency debasement and more frequent tail-risk events.
We also explore what a rotation back into equities, in light of improved investor sentiment
surrounding economic recovery in the US, might mean for gold. While there has been some
debate about whether a shift from safe to riskier assets could be negative for gold, its
diversification credentials increase portfolio efficiency in both good and bad economic times. In
addition, we debate why higher portfolio risk – consistent with a rotation out of cash or bonds into
equities – actually warrants a higher strategic gold allocation.
I hope you find this edition of Gold Investor informative and stimulating and would welcome your
views on the papers contained within.
Marcus Grubb
Managing Director and
Strategist, Investment
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
I: Investment commentary:
first quarter 2013
Gold’s recent price weakness and the sizeable outflows
from gold-backed ETFs have rekindled speculation about
the end of gold’s bull run and generated comparisons to
its 1980s decline. We discuss the limitations of the most
common arguments and contextualise gold’s price pullbacks.
We examine structural shifts that the gold market has
experienced over the last decade resulting in a robust set
of demand factors, very different from that seen during
the 1970s.
First quarter performance
Gold prices fell by 3.6% during the quarter (Chart 1a) alongside traditionally ‘safe’ assets such
as US treasuries, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen amid sizable gains in developed world equity
markets – with US equities alone gaining 11% (Chart 1b). The US dollar appreciated by more
than 4% in the period creating some headwinds for the gold market. Following the quarter’s end,
during an erratic two-day move in mid April, gold prices had dropped a further 10%.
Gold prices fell 3.6% in Q1
amid gains in developed
market equities.
0
| 8 |
|
16
24
US$/oz Volatility (%)
Chart 1: (a) Gold prices continued to fall, while (b) developed market equities soared during the quarter
Long-term
average
Gold price (lhs) Realised quarterly volatility (rhs)
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
04/2012 07/2012 10/2012 01/2013
US equities
DM equities
Trade-weighted US$
Commodities
US Treasuries
Swiss franc
EM equities
Gold (US$/oz)
Japanese yen
-12 -6 0 6 12
Return (%)
-3.6%
10.7%
9.9%
4.2%
0.6%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-7.1%
02_03
During Q1, positive economic developments in the US prompted investors to rotate funds out of
cash into equities, a phenomenon we discuss in Gold in the ‘Great Rotation’. There was also a
slight improvement to European economic confidence early in the quarter, but it did not last long.
News of a proposal to tax bank deposits in Cyprus eroded investor confidence and temporarily
boosted gold prices. While Cyprus was a case of limited contagion, their deposit tax solution set a
precedent and sent shivers throughout Europe. Subsequently, the European Central Bank signaled
that Cyprus could employ central bank gold reserves to cover losses from emergency loans to
commercial banks, putting downward pressure on prices and exacerbating bearish views in the
gold market. While Cyprus’s decision to sell gold has not been confirmed, the announcement
raised concerns about central bank independence and the prospect of sales by other European
nations. However, both the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA)1 and strong emerging market
demand, which accounted for the bulk of 2012 central bank purchases (535 tonnes), should
allay fears.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) enacted unprecedented expansionary monetary policies
in early April weakening the yen to almost ¥100 per US dollar – a level not seen since 2009.
Expansionary measures should generally be positive for gold. However, after more than a decade
of deflation, Japanese investors have seen this as an opportunity to increase flows into equities.
Additionally, one unintended consequence of a ballooning monetary base in Japan is the flow of
capital into foreign assets, primarily US-dollar denominated assets, which in the short term can be
negative for gold. Over the longer term, concerns about higher inflation and the sustainability of
BoJ polices are likely to become more apparent and make gold’s role more relevant.
Gold’s volatility marginally dropped to 11.1% during Q1 2013 – its third lowest quarter in the past
decade. Gold volatility typically decreases in a falling price environment in contrast to what is
typically observed in most risk assets. However, a sudden 9% price drop on April 15 has pushed
gold’s volatility higher; despite this gold’s three-month rolling volatility (approximately 20% by
the time of writing) is still within levels seen as recently as Q2 2012. At the same time, gold’s
correlation to other assets fell during Q1 2013 relative to 2012 as macroeconomic drivers that
pushed many risk assets higher, did not have the same effect on gold. Nonetheless, correlation
remains high compared to historical levels (Chart 2).
But what does the current period tell us about gold’s bull run?
Sentiment in the US
may have improved, but
problems in Europe linger.
In Japan, aggressive
inflationary policies
will benefit gold in the
long term.
Gold’s volatility marginally
fell during Q1 and so did
correlations.
Q1 2013 2012 Past 25 years
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, World Gold Council
Global equities
EM equities
Global bonds
Commodities
TW dollar
Chart 2: Gold’s correlation to global assets fell during Q1, but are still high relative to history
Correlation
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1 CBGA prevents signatories from collectively selling more than 400 tonnes of gold in a year and includes all European Union members.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
A perspective on gold’s recent pullback
The gold price has appreciated for the past 12 years, with average and year-end prices consistently
rising since 2001. However, gold prices have fallen from their nominal high of US$1,895/oz
(based on the London PM fix) set on 6 September 2011. By the end of Q1 2013, gold traded
near US$1,600/oz – a 16% pullback from its record high. In the first weeks of April, exceptional
conditions pushed the gold prices down further (as much as 27% below the US$1,900/oz level).
As gold prices fell, market participants questioned whether this drop represented the end of the
bull market and many gold analysts revised down their long-term price forecasts. In the past,
analysts’ short-term price predictions have not been without merit despite the difficult task of
forecasting gold. However, gold’s longer-term outlook has consistently been underestimated and
the top of the market called on multiple occasions (Chart 3).2
With gold prices dropping
by 16% in Q1 from their
high, analyst have called the
end of the bull run, but not
for the first time.
It appears that, as a consensus, gold analysts have failed to appreciate the structural changes that
have taken place in the gold market, firmly supporting price increases over more than a decade.
Additionally, most of the analysis tends to focus on US-driven factors neglecting other important
global variables. This leads to a particularly relevant question: is the recent pullback a true sign of
changing dynamics or is it consistent with gold’s 12-year trend?
First, we need to understand the economic environment that pushed gold prices to US$1,900/oz.
During 2011, concerns over the economic health of the US and Europe and the aggressive
monetary policies that followed (Western demand) coupled with strong emerging market growth
(Asian demand) boosted gold prices. Gold prices accelerated from US$1,500/oz in June to
US$1,900/oz in less than two months – an uncharacteristic acceleration. Such sharp increase
proved difficult for long-term demand drivers, such as Asian and central bank demand, to support.
The issue was not the price level itself, but how rapidly prices rose. In this sense, using an
US$1,900/oz as a benchmark for comparison overstates the correction and obscures the
long term trend.
Often, price predictions
exclude the effect of
non-US factors.
In 2011, gold prices rapidly
rose to a record high, not
giving time for organic
demand to adjust.
500
750
1,000
1,250
12/2007 12/2017
12/2009
12/2011
12/2013
12/2015
1,500
1,750
Gold price
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Consensus analyst forecast
2,000
US$/oz
Chart 3: Consensus analyst forecast has consistently been bearish on gold prices
2 This systematic bias is by no means confined to the gold market. Interest rate strategists have consistently had an upward bias to their forecasts of
benchmark interest rates in the US, predicting higher rates even as the 2008-09 financial crisis unfolded.
04_05
Even so, it is not the first time the gold market has experienced a pullback of this magnitude and
will likely not be the last. Asset price pullbacks occur naturally across financial markets and gold is
no exception. Instead, it is important to understand the sustainability of long-term drivers once the
effect of short-term drivers wears off. For gold, price pullbacks have often been linked to investor
profit taking, higher opportunity costs, and less uncertain economic environments, among others.
However, given that only 35% of annual demand is currently driven by investment, many others
factors influence gold’s performance. These factors such as emerging market demand or central
bank activity have little to do with economic conditions in developed markets. Over the course of
its 12-year bull run, gold prices have fallen by more than 10% (peak-to-trough) on seven occasions
and by more than 20% on three (Chart 4).3 The largest correction took place between March and
October 2008, when gold prices fell by 30%. After each of those occasions, gold prices made
new highs supported by healthy demand. In fact, anecdotal evidence suggests that Chinese
and Indian consumers as well as emerging central banks have used price pullbacks as buying
opportunities.4 Such purchases have made the news following gold’s exceptional mid April sell
off, as purchases have been brought forward in response to lower prices.5
So, what has made the gold market been so resilient for such an extended period of time?
However, this pullback has
not been the first. Prices
have fallen by more than
10% seven times and three
times by more than 20%
since 2001.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Pullback (%)
393+ days
538 days
369 days
337 days
124 days 120 days
93 days
40
30
20
10
0
50
60
70
80
90
100
29.5%
19.2%
15.7%
Gold (US$/oz)
Chart 4: The gold price has previously fallen by more than 10% seven times since 2001
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gold price (lhs) Rolling highs (lhs) Pullback (rhs)
*Days shown on the chart are trading days and exclude weekends and holidays.
Notes to go at the back of the document
Note for chart 5
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
April 15
27%
3 We define a separate pullback as one that occurs for a unique period of a new high. In other words, multiple oscillations around the 10% pullback
level for the same period were not counted.
| 4 |
|
Precious metals daily, UBS, 5 April 2013 and Precious metals daily, HSBC, 25 March 2013. |
| 5 |
|
Bloomberg, Gold tumble stokes demand from Indian bazaars to Chinese malls, 18 April 2013. |
A decade shaped by structural changes
The gold market has seen a number of positive structural changes since 1999 (see timeline
opposite). These include the launch of gold-backed ETFs, the liberalization of the Chinese gold
market, the Central Bank Gold Agreement, developments in the use of gold as collateral, an
increase in emerging markets disposable income, and the resurgence of investment demand as
a by-product of the 2008-09 financial crisis and its aftermath. The effect of these events was not
felt immediately, but its combined and long-term effects have had significant implications for gold.
The gold market has
seen multiple structural
shifts since the turn of
the century.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
The introduction of gold-backed ETFs has made gold investment accessible to a wider audience
through a transparent, regulated and liquid instrument that is backed by physical gold (and thus is
not a derivative contract). While gold-backed ETFs represent only 10% of average annual demand
(and less than one-third of investment demand). As of the end of Q1, there were 2,600 tonnes
of gold held in the form of ETFs, corresponding to just 8% of above-ground stock held by private
investors. The amount held in ETFs is roughly equivalent to one full year of mine production.
The establishment of the Shanghai gold exchange and the legalization of gold investment
purchases were tectonic shifts for the Chinese gold market. In turn, consumer demand has
increased from 200 tonnes per year in 2002 to over 750 tonnes per year in 2011 and 2012.
Chinese demand growth was not only fuelled by accessibility but by higher economic output. In
fact, growth in India, South East Asia and many other emerging economies has been particularly
relevant to the gold price development. As GDP and incomes in these countries increased, so did
demand for gold.
The financial crisis of 2008-09 represented a paradigm shift, structurally changing investors’ risk
management practices. The fallout has led developed market central banks to heavily intervene in
financial markets by implementing aggressive monetary policies. A persistent increase in central
bank balance sheets has motivated many western participants to purchase gold as a hedge
against future inflation and currency debasement. While assets such as US Treasuries, German
bunds, UK gilts, and Japanese Government Bonds are still widely considered ‘safe’, the financial
crisis and its aftermath has exposed some of their weakness, lowered their ratings, and prompted
questions not only on the underlying creditworthiness of government bonds but their excessive
correlation. Even as the economic environment improves, most structural problems in developed
markets have not been properly addressed leading to an increasing frequency of tail risk events as
summarised in Gold holdings: ample room for growth in a broad and liquid market.
Additionally, central banks have become net buyers after two decades of selling. The impact of
central bank activity is driven by two trends. European central banks, that had been the primary
source of central bank sales since the collapse of Bretton Woods and the gold standard, slowed
down their sales. At the same time emerging market central banks started to increase their gold
purchases as they looked to diversify their foreign reserves. As a result, what was close to 500
tonnes of annual supply less than 10 years ago had become over 500 tonnes of demand by 2012.
… such as the advent
of ETFs…
… strong demand from India,
China, and other emerging
markets…
… a reassessment of risk
management practices
by investors in developed
markets…
… and central banks have
turned to net buyers.
European central banks
sign an agreement
limiting gold sales
Gold miners begin
to de-hedge their
operations
Introduction of
gold-backed ETFs
Chinese banks allowed to sell
gold investment products.
Credit crisis spurs
a re-evaluation of
risk management
policies
Central
banks
become
net buyers
Institutions
begin to view
gold as
collateral –
(CME, ICE etc.)
Turkey’s central bank
allows gold to be
used as capital for
commercial banks
Shanghai gold exchange
founded. Chinese gold
market liberalised
Commercial banks
in China begin
trading bullion
Start of QE
monetary
policy
European debt
crisis begins.
Creditworthiness
of developed market
government debt put
into question
Questions
raised about
the safety of
US debt
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
06_07
Two very different bull runs
The recurring comparison between the current gold price trend and the seemingly equivalent
inflation-adjusted price appreciation gold experienced period between 1971 and 1980 is, in fact,
a simplistic and flawed parallel. These two periods have been characterized by different price
performance and remarkably dissimilar fundamental drivers. During the 1970s, the advent of
fiat currencies made gold a free-floating market while private gold ownership was once again
permitted in the US. During that decade, oil prices spiked and tensions in the Middle East rose,
leading to hyperinflation and instability. Gold prices shot up on the back of these tailwinds.
However, speculative flows led the way, not giving enough time for demand to grow organically.
During the 1970s, gold prices rose by an average of 30% per year, with similar levels of volatility.
At their peak, inflation-adjusted prices rose 12-fold to more than US$2,500/oz amid violent
pullbacks of over 40% (Chart 5). A combination of fewer financial assets available, strong gold
investment demand, and a meteoric price increase, substantially increased gold ownership levels
to a 14% share of all financial assets. In comparison, gold represents just 1% of assets today as
discussed in Gold holdings: ample room for growth in a broad and liquid market. At the same time,
the gold market was significantly less diverse. During the 1970s, demand was largely driven by
purchases in the US, UK and Europe which accounted for approximately 60% of demand leading
up to gold’s peak (Chart 6). On the supply side, South Africa greatly dominated mine production
and a flurry of discoveries increased supply in the early 80s, putting further downward pressure
on the gold price.
In contrast, gold demand
during the 1970s was
fuelled by cyclical factors.
Prices quickly rose amid
violent pullbacks and
ownership levels were high.
Price performance 1971 – 1983 2001 – present
CPI inflation 9% 2%
Annual return 30% 16%
Volatility 29% 19%
Maximum price increase 1,065% 465%
Maximum pullback 46% 29%
Number of 20%+ pullbacks 4 2
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, LMBA, IMF, Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council
1970s gold price performance 2000s gold price performance
Max: US$850/oz
US$2,500 in 2013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Index level
Chart 5: Gold’s current bull run has been measured and steady, in stark contrast to
the 1970s price action
1970
2001
1972
2003
1974
2005
1976
2007
1978
2009
1980
2011
1982
2013
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
In contrast, the bull market in the 2000s, influenced by the structural factors previously discussed,
has been driven by growth in Asian emerging markets and economic problems in developed
markets. Demand and supply are more balanced and geographically diverse resulting in a measured
and less volatile trajectory.
What does the future hold?
Short term factors including market momentum and the concentrated sellof following analysts’
downward gold price forecast revisions along with Cyprus’ gold sales contagion could put
pressure on gold prices in the near future. However, we consider that many of the fundamental
drivers that have supported gold’s 12-year trajectory are still well in place. Data suggests that
some investors in developed markets are betting on a swift economic recovery, and while
economic data may seem encouraging in the US, many of the underlying issues that financial
markets face are still relevant: countries face high level of debt while monetary policies have yet to
unwind. At the same time, gold’s fate does not rely only on uncertainty and malaise in developed
markets. Gold’s performance is also linked to their long-term economic expansion. There is
consensus that emerging market economies will continue growing. Most economists agree that
emerging markets will continue to grow and surpass developed market economies by 2020 in
term of GDP.6 Finally, the US dollar will likely remain a crucial component of the monetary system,
but may have to make room for others. As central banks diversify their foreign reserves, gold will
continue to be one of the most relevant assets.
For the past decade, gold
has been supported by a
robust combination
of factors.
Short term factors can put
pressure on gold, but long
term dynamics remain
healthy.
| 6 |
|
Economist, Power Shift, 4 August 2011. |
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council Share of demand (%) Chart 6: Geographic composition and source of demand is more diverse today than
it was during the 1970s
0
20
40
60
80
100
USA and Europe Asia Other
Jewellery Technology Investment Central banks
1970s 2000s 1970s 2000s
08_09
References
Chart 1: (a) Gold prices continued to fall, while (b) developed market equities soared during the quarter
| (a) |
|
Realised volatility is computed using daily returns for each quarter. The wide arrow on the right represents the |
long-term volatility computed using return data from December 1987 to December 2012.
Chart 2: Gold’s correlation to global assets fell during Q1, but are still high relative to history
Correlations are computed using daily data over the period referenced in the legend. ‘TW dollar’ is a trade weighted
currency basket for the US. Barclays Global Aggregate, MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI World are used for
global bonds, emerging market and global equities, respectively.
Chart 3: Consensus analyst forecast has consistently been bearish on gold prices
Analyst forecast is a median of analyst estimate of future gold prices as indicated by the Bloomberg composite.
Gray lines correspond to these forecasts.
Chart 4: The gold price has previously fallen by more than 10% seven times since 2001
The red line labelled rolling high is a rolling maximum price moves up when new a high is reached. The days shown
in the chart represent trading days, not calendar days. Pullback is calculated by taking the percentage difference
between the gold price and the relevant rolling highs.
The table below shows the relevant dates of highs at each stage, the date of the 10% pullback and the date of the
maximum pullback followed by the maximum gold price for each period, the price at the maximum pullback price
and percentage as well as the length of the pullback period.
Gold market timeline of events since 1999
The events shown in the timeline have a structural influence on the gold price and were not necessarily price
moving events at their announcements.
Chart 5: Gold’s current bull run has been measured and steady, in stark contrast to the 1970s price action
The two price series were normalised (=100) at the beginning of each period: 1970 – 1983 and 2001 – 2013.
Return performance based on daily data. Fundamental drivers computations based on average annual figures.
Chart 6: Geographic composition and source of demand is more diverse today than it was during the 1970s
The 1970s period is computed using the annual demand date from 1973 to 1979. The 2000s period is computing
using annual demand data from 2004 to 2012. Negative values of demand was considered part of supply and
not included in the calculations. Many of these figures have been subsequently revised as a result of changes
in methodology.
Count Date of high
First date
prices fall
more than
10%
Date of
maximum
pullback
Gold price
high
(US$/oz)
Gold price
(US$/oz) at
maximum
pullback
Maximum
pullback
Trading days
to new high
| 1 |
|
07/02/00 28/03/00 02/04/01 312.70 255.95 -18.1% 538 |
| 2 |
|
05/02/03 13/03/03 07/04/03 382.10 319.90 -16.3% 124 |
| 3 |
|
01/04/04 07/05/04 10/05/04 427.25 375.00 -12.2% 120 |
| 4 |
|
12/05/06 19/05/06 06/10/06 725.00 560.75 -22.7% 337 |
| 5 |
|
17/03/08 01/04/08 24/10/08 1,011.25 712.50 -29.5% 369 |
| 6 |
|
02/12/09 22/12/09 05/02/10 1,212.50 1,058.00 -12.7% 93 |
| 7 |
|
05/09/11 23/09/11 29/12/11 1,895.00 1,531.00 -19.2% - |
Source: LBMA, World Gold Council
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
II: Gold and currencies: protecting
purchasing power
Investors in developed markets face an economic
environment marked by aggressive monetary policies,
high debt-to-GDP ratios, and challenges to the long-term
strength of their currencies. Gold should play an important
role in any strategy adopted to preserve purchasing
power and minimise downside risks in the face of these
inflationary headwinds.
Gold is used today as an inflation-protection tool by many investors as it has been for centuries.
However, its ability to help investors maintain purchasing power is often misunderstood, leading
some market participants to question gold’s usefulness as an inflation hedge. One of their primary
arguments against gold has been that changes in gold prices tend to have a low correlation
to changes in consumer price indices (CPI) in the US and other developed economies. This
argument, however, has three important shortcomings.
Gold is typically used to
protect against inflation,
but this quality is often
misunderstood.
Purchasing
power
Gold
Currency
debasement
and volatility
High inflation
10_11
First, gold should be seen as a barometer of global inflation, one that responds to inflationary
pressures in developed markets as well as in emerging markets. Notably, gold is bought in the
form of bars, coins and jewellery in emerging markets as a way to preserve and transfer wealth.
These markets have accounted for approximately 70% of annual demand over the past decade
and many face high levels of inflation (Chart 1).
Gold should be seen as
a barometer of global
inflation.
Europe (including UK)
US
China
Turkey
South East Asia
India
Chart 1: Gold demand is not limited to countries with current low inflation levels
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council
2.4%
3.2%
8.2%
8.3%
8.7%
Average annual jewellery demand
Average annual consumer price inflation
Average annual investment demand
53
301
253
119
119
251
147
201
373
123
568
2.3%
98
Demand (tonnes) CPI (% YoY)
Second, consumer price indices can be useful benchmarks in policymaking, but they are not
always perfect gauges for the rate of inflation end-consumers (and investors) face: adjustments,
substitutions, exclusions and weights given to each component may not coincide with what
households experience day-to-day. Additionally, households’ purchasing power is not only
affected by prices for goods and services paid (ie, inflation), but also by their income level. It is
important for investors to have a better sense of ‘true’ inflation through measures complementary
to CPI, including the relative purchasing power reflected in the foreign exchange rates of their
home currencies.
Finally, gold helps to preserve wealth over the long run. While there is evidence that suggests
gold prices rise in periods of high inflation, as discussed in The impact of inflation and deflation
in the case for gold, by Oxford Economics, the relationship between gold, inflation and, more
broadly, purchasing power should be analysed over long periods of time and not on a
monthly basis.
In this study, we analyse gold’s role in preserving long-term wealth, focusing on its relationship
to purchasing power using ‘real effective exchange rates’. We show how gold can be used by
investors as an integral component of their long-term investment strategies.
… evaluated not only against
consumer price baskets,
but broader inflation
measures…
… and over long periods
of time.
Here we analyse the role
gold has protecting longterm
wealth.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Is it not all about consumer price inflation?
Over the past five years, central banks in developed markets have engaged in aggressive
monetary policies designed to steer economies away from an even deeper recession and,
potentially, deflation. With the expansion of the monetary base (partly through quantitative easing
measures) many investors have grown concerned about the spectre of future inflation. So far,
inflation measured via CPI in many developed economies remains low, and inflation expectations
appear well anchored – albeit with a higher degree of uncertainty and less consensus among
economists.1 Yet consumers feel poorer.2 There are multiple reasons why this may be the case,
but two are particularly relevant to investors who rely on inflation measures to make appropriate
financial decisions: consumer price baskets do not always encapsulate all aspects of inflation and
these need to be analysed relative to a broader set of purchasing power measures.
Baskets such as CPI are widely used for setting policy and making business decisions. The
Bank of England and European Central Bank use UK CPI and European harmonised CPI (HCPI),
respectively, as a benchmarks against their inflation targets. The Federal Reserve focuses on
US CPI excluding food and energy (or core CPI) for policy making, despite the impact these two
categories may have on households. The weights that different goods and services have in the
aforementioned indices do not always correspond to what a household may experience.
For example, tuition has been one of the fastest growing expenses for US households but
represents only 3% of CPI (Chart 2). In practice, tuition costs correspond to more than 10% of
annual income even for upper-middle American households3 – and a higher percentage of
their consumption.
With the expansion of
monetary policies, investors
have grown concerned
about the spectre of
inflation, which has yet to
materialise.
This is in part because
consumer price indices
do not always capture all
relevant aspects of inflation
for end-consumers…
Apparel 3.6% 1.6%
Food and beverage 15% 2.4%
17% 2.7%
41% 2.9%
Transportation
Housing
Goods and services 3.4% 3.7%
7.2% 4.2%
3.1% 4.2%
%
Medical care
Tuition
Total CPI
Chart 2: Important expenditures under-represented in US CPI
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, World Gold Council
Current weight Annual growth rate (1976 – 2012)
2.8%
| 1 |
|
Top analysts’ forecasts of the US economic outlook for the year ahead, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, November 2012. |
2 A reduction in buying power has been felt developed economies as discussed in: Hard Times, The Economist, October 2011,
and Dropping shopping, The Economist, March 2013.
| 3 |
|
College may become unaffordable for most in US, The New York Times, December 2008. |
12_13
Moreover, consumer price baskets are frequently adjusted to incorporate the effect that
advancements in technology (e.g. in computer hardware) have on prices paid. These so-called
hedonic adjustments can overstate reductions in price compared to what consumers pay in
practice. For example, a new computer can have the same nominal price it did five years ago, but
adjusting for processing speed and storage capacity, it appears cheaper.
In addition, there have been periodic substitutions of goods and services as well as other
methodological changes that, while based in well regarded economic theories, in practice do not
always reflect the full erosion of purchasing power. In fact, as shown in Chart 3, the current rate
of inflation calculated using the methodology in use during the 1980s – which foregoes many
of these recent adjustments – is considerably higher than what is currently reflected by today’s
CPI methodology.
… whether for the component
weights chosen, ‘hedonic’
adjustments made…
… or other methodological
considerations.
Chart 3: US CPI inflation rates computed using the current methodology are lower than
indicated by a previous methodology
CPI (YoY %)
0
| 2 |
|
-2
-4
| 4 |
|
10
| 8 |
|
| 6 |
|
12
14
16
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Shadowstats
Current methodology 1980s methodology
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
However, we are not questioning whether CPI or core CPI are valuable measures for policy
makers around the world, their theoretical validity, or whether the methodology used in the
previous decades to construct these baskets is superior to the one used now. Our main argument
is that consumer price baskets do not encapsulate all aspects of inflation and do not necessarily
reflect actual prices paid by a large portion of consumers. Further, even if CPI inflation were
the correct measure, it should be understood relative to household income. Incomes need to
keep pace with inflation in order to maintain purchasing power. However, real incomes in the
US, UK and Europe have been stagnant (and even falling) for the past decade, exacerbating
the effect that tight economic conditions following the 2008-09 financial crisis have had on
households (Chart 4).
While consumer price
baskets are useful for
policymaking, they are
imperfect in measuring
purchasing power…
Chart 4: Inflation-adjusted incomes in the US, UK and Europe have fallen
Index level
80
110
100
90
120
130
140
03/1991 03/1994 03/1997 03/2000 03/2003 03/2006 03/2009
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Thomson Reuters, World Gold Council
UK Europe US
Understanding how to account properly for purchasing power erosion is of particular importance
to investors. Thus, when making long-term asset allocation decisions, investors should focus on
measures that better capture changes in purchasing power. But, if inflation as measured by CPI is
not enough, what else can be added to the decision process?
… which is a more relevant
metric for wealth
preservation.
14_15
Measuring purchasing power through exchange rates
An alternative way to measure the loss of purchasing power is by looking at the effect of currency
depreciation. In theory, exchange rates should incorporate inflation rates differentials between
countries. Over the long run and assuming an open global economic system, real effective
exchange rates (REERs) – which measure exchange rates among currencies adjusting for the
different levels of inflation – should remain in equilibrium (see Focus 1). This is what economists
refer to as purchasing power parity (PPP). Currency intervention, trade restrictions and other
factors may affect PPP.
However, free-floating currencies such as the US dollar, euro and pound sterling, with their fairly
open and efficient markets, should be effective at pricing differences in inflation. When PPP does
not hold for these currencies over the long-run, holding other things constant, the consumer price
basket used to compute the REER may not be capturing ‘true’ inflation. Thus, when a free-floating
currency depreciates in real effective terms, inflation in the country might be higher than what
CPI would suggest. Additionally, research by the Bank of International Settlements suggests that
“keeping the level of the real exchange rate depreciated (appreciated) for an extended period may
lead to a sustained increase (decrease) in inflation”.4 In other words, a structurally weak currency
may fuel inflation over the long run.
As investors focus on
purchasing power,
they ought to consider
the effects of currency
devaluation…
… which can be measured
using ‘real effective
exchange rates’.
4 Kamin, S. A multi-country comparison of the linkage between inflation and exchange rate competitiveness, Bank of International Settlements,
Working Paper No. 45, August 1997.
| 5 |
|
Catao, L. Why real exchange rates? Finance and Development, September 2007. |
Focus 1: Real effective exchange rates in summary
Why real exchange rates?, by Luis Catão offers a simple explanation on the importance of real
effective exchange rates.5 Here’s a summary of the main points:
• Nominal exchange rates reflect the domestic price of a foreign currency, but do not encapsulate
fundamental differences in consumer prices vis-à-vis other countries.
• Real exchange rates (RERs) seek to measure the value of goods and services between
countries and in its most simple expression is calculated as: (exchange rate) x (average price of
good in one country) / (average price of good in another country).
• In practice, real effective exchange rates (REERs) are computed using consumer price baskets
and measured against multiple trading partners at a time. The word ‘effective’ refers to this
multi-country view of real exchange rates.
• REERs represent adjusted exchange rates that account for inflation rate differentials between a
country and the rest of the world and whose weights are defined by the proportionate level of
trade (or other relevant relationship) between economies.
• In the short term, REERs can exhibit considerable volatility. However, in equilibrium and over
the long-term, purchasing parity should hold.
• While imperfect, REERs can be useful to identify large exchange rate misalignments and their
negative consequences.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
For many developed economies, purchasing power has not remained constant. In nominal (noninflation
adjusted) terms, exchange rates are a zero-sum game. Some currencies appreciate at
the expense of others. However, once inflation rate differentials are taken into consideration
and a stable system is expected, a telling picture arises. Since the beginning of the century, only
Switzerland has maintained purchasing parity with other currencies in real terms, while the US,
the UK, Germany and even Japan have not (Chart 5). For example, US consumers have lost a
cumulative 12% of their purchasing power through real effective currency depreciation alone.
Most developed market
currencies have been
devaluating in real terms
over the past decade…
Chart 5: Most developed currencies have depreciated in real effective terms over
the past decade
Annual depreciation (%)
-1
0
-2
-3
| 1 |
|
| 2 |
|
| 3 |
|
| 4 |
|
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: IMF, J.P. Morgan, World Gold Council
Germany US UK Japan Switzerland
Note: Real exchange rates computed using IMF 1975 – 1999 2000 – 2012
Looking forward, as emerging markets continue their economic expansion and become even
more important contributors to global GDP – and the monetary system as well – their currencies
will strengthen, further challenging the purchasing power of investors in developed regions. In
their paper Gold, the renminbi and the multi-currency reserve system, the Official Monetary and
Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) discussed the Chinese renminbi and the likelihood of it
gradually emerging to become genuine international currency as the Chinese government eases
restrictions on its use in transactions and investments abroad. OMFIF further observed how,
during the period of uncertainty and transition from a single to a multiple reserve currency system
and as policy makers undertake alternative reserve asset management strategies, gold will play
an important role.
Likewise, it is particularly relevant for investors in developed markets to look for long-term
strategies that can better maintain purchasing power. While it is unrealistic for US, UK, or
European investors to forgo their domestic currencies, holding gold can protect investors’ wealth
while helping them manage downside risks.
… and this trend is likely to
continue.
Thus, a comprehensive
wealth preservation
strategy is called for.
16_17
Holding gold as a strategy for preserving purchasing power
There is a large body of research that has studied the relationship between gold and inflation,
examples of which are included in Focus 2. However, to fully assess the benefits that gold offers
as a means of preserving wealth, the effect of both traditional inflation measures and currency
depreciation ought to be included. As discussed in Gold and currencies: hedging foreign-exchange
risk, gold not only has a negative correlation to the US dollar – a relation that is particularly
apparent when using real effective exchange rates (Chart 6) – but it also exhibits a negative
correlation to most developed market currencies in periods of systemic risk. Two natural questions
then arise. First, would an investor benefit by using gold to preserve capital? And second, would
gold be needed even if investors already have other currency-denominated assets as part of their
long-term strategy?
Research has shown
gold benefits through
its negative correlation
to developed market
currencies and its
long-term price stability…
Chart 6: Gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar and acts as a hedge
Index log-level
100
95
90
105
115
110
120
IMF US$ REER London PM fix (real)
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, LBMA, World Gold Council
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Focus 2: Gold and inflation
While gold should be seen in the context of global inflation and analysed over the long run,
research suggests that even when linked to inflation in the US and other developed markets, gold
tends to preserve investors’ capital as it typically outperforms sharp increases in consumer prices.
For example, in The impact of inflation and deflation in the case for gold Oxford Economics shows
that gold performs better than most assets under extreme inflation conditions: namely, in periods
of high inflation as well as in periods of deflation. Additionally, in his seminal work The golden
constant, Roy Jastram finds that over long periods of time gold has maintained its value relative to
wholesale (commodities) prices. This finding was extended to a CPI basket in multiple countries
including the US, the UK, France and Japan by Stephen Harmston and the World Gold Council in
Gold as a store of value.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Our analysis shows that investors do benefit by adding gold and, by holding a portion of their cash
portfolio in gold, investors do not only maintain purchasing power but can also reduce volatility.
Even if investors already hold other developed market currencies, gold provides additional (direct
and indirect) advantages that improve the performance of their cash holdings.
Starting from a simple approach in which only cash was held, investors in US dollars would have
lost an average of 0.5% per year for the past 40 years in real effective terms, and experienced
annual volatility on the order of 5.1%. To understand the effect of adding foreign currencies and
gold to the cash portfolio, we considered three alternatives strategies: 1) holding US dollars
and gold; 2) holding US dollars, British pounds, euro, Japanese yen and Swiss francs, with no
allocation to gold and 3) all previously mentioned currencies and gold.
We found that having a diversified set of currencies as part of cash holdings was substantially
better at not only maintaining but increasing purchasing power. Holding gold improved the
performance of a cash portfolio in US dollars as well as in a portfolio containing a basket of
currencies (Chart 7). For example, calculations using data going back to the 1970s (when gold
became free-floating) show that investors with 87% in US dollars and 13% in gold would have
increased their purchasing power by 1% per year while maintaining the same level of volatility.
Further, holding 47% in US dollars, 18% in gold and the rest in foreign currencies (primarily Swiss
franc and yen) would have increased investors’ purchasing power by 2.1% per year without
incurring higher risk.6 In all, allocations to gold between 2% and 20% over the past 40 years have
increased purchasing power for US dollar investors while reducing risk as well as extreme losses
during negative economic environments.
… helping investors in
preserving purchasing
power.
We anlaysed various
strategies comparing
cash, foreign currencies
and gold holdings.
… and found that adding
2% to 18% gold improves
purchasing power with
equal or less risk, even
when foreign currencies
are part of the strategy.
Chart 7: Gold helps to preserve purchasing power by improving the performance of a
basket of currencies
PP increase (%)
0
0.5
-0.5
-1.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
US$ US$ and gold US$ and FX basket US$, FX basket and gold
Does not include gold Includes gold
6 The optimal weights in the ‘cash’ portfolio were estimated with the objective of maximising purchasing power and computed using the Re-sampled
Efficiency methodology developed by Michaud and Michaud and discussed in more detail in their book Efficiency Asset Management: A practical guide
to stock and portfolio optimisation and asset allocation, 2nd edition, 2008, Oxford Press, New York.
18_19
We also considered the effect that purchasing power has on risk-averse investors who may
focus only on hedging inflation risk as measured by CPI. A natural strategy to such investors
in the US, for example, is to buy Treasury Inflation Protection bonds (TIPs). By holding TIPs only,
US investors would have made 6.6% per year (in CPI inflation-adjusted terms) since 1997 when
TIPs were first issued. However, once the real effective depreciation of the US dollar is taken into
consideration, their return decreases to 4.3% per year. In contrast, by holding 95% in TIPs and
5% in gold, their portfolio return would have increased to 7% without adding volatility.
But cash or inflation-linked bonds are seldom the only assets investors hold. As summarised in
Gold in the ‘Great Rotation’, the case for gold in a multi-asset portfolio is robust across currencies.
Including the effects of inflation and currency depreciation reinforces this view. For US dollarbased
investors holding cash, domestic and international bonds and equities as well as additional
assets such as commodities and real estate, we found that adding gold allocations between
1.7% and 7.8% improved portfolio performance by reducing risk and improving purchasing
power – consistent with previous findings. Additionally, the analysis shows that taking into
consideration the impact that effective exchange rates have on purchasing power substantially
reduces the optimal weights that conservative, moderate and aggressive investors typically assign
to cash and bonds (Chart 8). The rationale is straightforward: when the currency effect is not
taken into consideration, assets such as cash, government bonds and even inflation-linked bonds
appear stable and attractive. However, taking into account the inherent risks any currency has,
exposes the drawbacks of holding large quantities of seemingly ‘safe’ assets. At the same time,
optima allocations to foreign and alternative assets increase. In this case, diversification becomes
paramount and gold stabilises portfolio volatility by counterbalancing risks,
Gold can also benefit
inflation-linked holdings.
… and when analysed in
the context of a broader
portfolio, a strategic
allocation to gold not only
improves purchasing power
but manages risk more
effectively.
Chart 8: Portfolios that take into consideration the effect of inflation and currency
devaluation have more gold and less fixed income
Cash Bonds Equities Alternatives Gold
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, World Gold Council
Conservative Moderate Aggressive
Risk tolerance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Weight (%)
FX adjusted Nominal FX adjusted Nominal FX adjusted Nominal
Chart 8: Portfolios that take into consideration the effect of inflation and currency
devaluation have more gold and less fixed income
Cash Bonds Equities Alternatives Gold
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, World Gold Council
Conservative Moderate Aggressive
Risk tolerance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Weight (%)
FX and inflation
adjusted
Inflation
adjusted
FX and inflation
adjusted
FX and inflation
adjusted
Inflation
adjusted
Inflation
adjusted
| 3 |
|
54
23
15
| 5 |
|
| 8 |
|
62
16
10
| 4 |
|
| 1 |
|
39
31
21
| 7 |
|
| 3 |
|
49
26
16
| 6 |
|
| 1 |
|
26
40
26
| 8 |
|
| 2 |
|
33
36
23
| 8 |
|
| 3 |
|
54
23
15
| 5 |
|
| 8 |
|
62
16
10
| 4 |
|
| 1 |
|
39
31
21
| 7 |
|
| 3 |
|
49
26
16
| 6 |
|
| 1 |
|
26
40
26
| 8 |
|
| 2 |
|
33
36
23
| 8 |
|
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Our analysis used historical asset performance to estimate optimal allocations aimed at
maximising purchasing power by taking into consideration currency inflation and currency
depreciation. Many developed market economies currently face structural issues that increase
their risk and reduce the benefits their currencies have as vehicles for diversification. These issues
range from high levels of debt-to-GDP as seen in the Japanese and US economies, among others,
to the long-term viability of the euro area as a single currency economy. In this case, gold has a
few noteworthy characteristics: 1) it functions as a currency that has no credit or counterparty
risk; 2) it trades in a liquid, global market; 3) new supply can only come from mine production,
increasing the total available stock at low rates; and 4) even under the conservative assumption
for the gold price to increase at the rate of inflation, its optimal weight in a portfolio is linked to its
beneficial correlation to the US dollar and various other assets for investors.
In sum, through a modest allocation to gold, investors are better equipped to protect purchasing
power not only as measured by consumer price inflation, but also by broader measures that
incorporate systemic currency depreciation.
The role of gold in a world of fiat currencies
Many developed market currencies face a difficult time ahead. Following the collapse of Bretton
Woods and the end of the gold standard, fiat currencies faced a new world with a new set of
rules, originally devised to give more flexibility to central bankers. However, aggressive monetary
policies developed to stimulate battered economies in the aftermath of the global financial
crisis, coupled with record levels of debt issuance, large budget deficits, and a reassessment
of what a ‘risk-free’ asset is, will likely put further pressure in developed market currencies,
effectively depressing consumer purchasing power. As the global economy expands and the
monetary system evolves into a multi-currency framework, gold is not only a natural participant in
diversification strategies but an effective one.
In addition, gold lacks the
credit risk to which other
currencies are exposed.
… making it a valuable
component of long-term
investment strategies.
As the global economy
migrates to a multicurrency
financial system,
gold will help diversify risk
and preserve wealth.
20_21
References
Chart 1: Gold demand is not limited to countries with current low inflation levels
Average investment demand is the annual average of bar and coin and ETF demand from 2005 to 2012. Average
jewellery demand is the annual average jewellery demand from 2005 to 2012. Annual inflation is the annual average
inflation using the country’s respective consumer price indices. South East Asia includes Indonesia, Vietnam,
Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. South East Asia annual inflation is a gold demand weighted average of those
country’s inflation rates.
Chart 2: Important expenditures under-represented in US CPI
Categories represent select segments of the CPI basket that comprise the majority of the index. Weights are as of
2012 and annual growth rates are computed using monthly data between 1976 and 2012.
Chart 3: US CPI inflation rates computed using the current methodology are lower than indicated by a
previous methodology
1980s methodology computes the inflation rate using the CPI weights during the 1980s. The data and charts
are taken directly from shadow stats. All questions with regards to construction of yearly inflation using the old
methodology should be directed to shadow stats.
Chart 4: Inflation-adjusted incomes in the US, UK and Europe have fallen
All series are inflation adjusted using the country’s inflation basket. US series is computed using median family
income whereas UK and European series is computed using wage per capita data. Between 2007 and 2011 there
were 2.6 persons per household on average in the US.
Chart 5: Most developed currencies have depreciated in real effective terms over the past decade
The chart shows the annual change in the real effective exchange rate. The effective exchange rate is calculated as
a weighted average of a basket of currencies. For full methodology details please refer to the IMF.
Chart 6: Gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar and acts as a hedge
The chart plots CPI inflation-adjusted gold price against the US dollar’s real effective exchange rate.
Chart 7: Gold helps to preserve purchasing power by improving the performance of a basket of currencies
The chart shows the return of a portfolio consisting of the US$ real effective exchange rate (REER), Gold and US$
REER, basket of currencies and US$ REER and Gold, a basket of currencies and US$ REER.
Chart 8: Portfolios that take into consideration the effect of inflation and currency devaluation have more
gold and less fixed income
Portfolio analysis consistent of 13 assets including cash, US Treasuries, TIPs, global inflation bonds, US credit,
Global treasuries, US large cap, US small cap, developed world equities, emerging market equities, real estate,
commodities and gold. Returns, volatility and correlation were computed using monthly data from December 1987
to December 2012. The TIPS index incepted in March 1997 while the global inflation bond (ex-US) series incepted in
December 1997. Inflation-adjustments using CPI (urban consumers).
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
2%
10%
1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch, High liquidity, policy traction and the great rotation – The Outlook for 2013, 11 December 2012.
| 2 |
|
FT alphaville, Let’s wait for a fall in stocks before declaring a great rotation, 7 February 2013. |
Market observers have positioned the Great Rotation, a term loosely attributed in late 2012 to
an investment bank’s global outlook for the year ahead,1 as the replacement of a multi-year ‘cult
of bonds’ with a new ‘cult of equity’.2 Although by no means a new idea, this perceived shift has
received particular focus of late and is currently hotly debated. Supported by a strong surge
of capital into equity mutual funds and ETFs at the start of 2013, many argue that poor bond
risk/reward profiles, relatively attractive equities and signs of economic recovery will prompt
a large-scale reallocation to a more risk-neutral weighting involving fewer bonds and more
equities (Chart 1).
The ‘Great Rotation’ has
been touted by strategists
as a once-in-a-generation
allocation shift.
III: Gold in the Great Rotation
As the debate surrounding a Great Rotation continues to feed
through both the press and the investment community, we
show why gold has a perennial role in a portfolio regardless
of the asset mix. We also highlight that higher portfolio
risk – consistent with a rotation out of cash or bonds into
equities – warrants a higher strategic gold allocation.
Higher risk
Lower reward 4.0
1990
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2012 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2012
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
0
| 2 |
|
| 4 |
|
| 6 |
|
| 8 |
|
10
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
10
20
30 Average
40
50
Yield (lhs) Duration (rhs) P/book (lhs) P/E (cycle adjusted; rhs)
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, World Gold Council
Yield Duration Price/book
Chart 1: (a) Bonds look poor, while (b) equities appear attractive
Price/earnings
Equities unattractive
Equities attractive
22_23
Setting aside the validity of an argument for a rotation (Focus 1), if we are indeed witnessing this
shift, investors would want to know how it might impact gold. There are those who think that
what is good for equities is naturally bad for gold, with gold seen simply as a ‘safe-haven’ asset
that functions like insurance during times of market stress. They view gold as being negatively
correlated to the business cycle and equate this to a negative correlation to equities. To some
investors, a rotation out of bonds into equities might suggest a return to a normalised interest-rate
environment – a theme discussed in the recent Investment Commentary: Q4 and full year 2012
– raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and weakening its appeal.3 These perceptions can
foster the sentiment that a Great Rotation calls for a lower strategic allocation to gold. We do not
share this sentiment. Here’s why.
Strong arguments support the perennial necessity of gold in a portfolio and the rationale that
builds this case. In addition, portfolio optimisation analysis has consistently shown that as portfolio
risk increases, the optimal strategic allocation to gold increases – a scenario synonymous with
a shift from bonds to equities. Current flows suggest not an imminent large shift from bonds to
equities but rather a subtle transition of new incremental income into both bonds and equities and
away from cash. We show that gold’s optimal strategic allocation rises in this scenario, too. We
also question whether long-term assumptions about bond performance are appropriate in setting
allocation strategies, and how a relaxation of these assumptions affects an optimal gold allocation.
So while we do not know how investors will react to a potential shift or to their interpretation of
the current environment, we do know that an extensive body of research suggests that having
gold is optimal, and should a shift occur, increasing gold allocations is warranted.
Gold and the Great Rotation
Before we visit the implications of a historic shift from bonds to equities or safe assets to riskier
assets, we first underline how a strategic allocation to gold is a necessity regardless of asset mix.
In other words, the basic premise is that gold is not part of a rotation but sits apart from it as a
core holding, due to diversification, tail risk and capital preservation credentials. We revisit the
rationale for this assertion in the summary in Focus 2. The supply and demand dynamics of gold
equip it with unique characteristics, visible in its statistical properties and return attributes.
It is through this set of characteristics that gold has consistently been shown to perform a
critical role within a diversified portfolio. Gold’s role will become even more important as the
global economic centre of gravity shifts eastwards and as surplus investment capital risks
generating greater market volatility, as discussed in Gold holdings: ample room for growth in a
deep and liquid market.
As investors ponder whether a lower allocation to gold is warranted, as economic risks appear to
recede in concert with a Great Rotation, we underscore that the opposite is true.
Whether a ‘Great Rotation’
is taking place or not,
investors are right to ask
how it may affect gold.
We address these concerns
by showing that gold is not
a luxury but a necessity.
Gold is a foundation asset
that has shown to always
have an important role in a
diversified portfolio…
… and a rotation to equities
increases its relevance.
| 3 |
|
Goldman Sachs, The turn in the gold cycle is likely underway, 25 February 2013. |
| 4 |
|
Buttonwood, Time for the great rotation? The Economist, 9 January 2013. |
| 5 |
|
Dolan, M. Awaiting proof of the “Great Rotation”, 15 February 2013. |
6 A shift in aggregate, holding the stock of equity and bonds fixed, cannot occur as for every shift out of bonds into equities by an investor,
there must be an equal and opposite shift by someone else.
| 7 |
|
J.P. Morgan, Flows and liquidity: Impediments to the Great Rotation, 8 February 2013. |
| 8 |
|
Bloomberg, Bernanke defends asset purchases as benefits outweigh risks, 26 February 2013. |
9 Barclays, Equity gilt study, 21 February 2013.
10 CITI Research, QE isn’t working: An equity perspective, 21 November 2012.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Focus 1: The Great Rotation debate
The idea of a Great Rotation surfaced in late 2012 in response
to a number of developments.4 The proponents of this theme,
supported by strong flows into equity funds in early 2013
(Chart 2a), base their arguments partly on a number of factors
including yield differentials, the risk/reward profile of bonds and
signs that economic growth is returning – particularly in the US.
The catalyst for these flows, strategists argue, have been a
number of recent developments.
Equities are relatively attractive, particularly on yield comparisons
with bonds (Chart 3a). There are signs of economic recovery.
In the US, housing and energy sectors show improving
fundamentals.5 Corporate balance sheets are solid. In addition,
global central bank policy is perceived to have ‘insured’ markets,
paving the way for higher risk tolerance. Risk/reward appears to
favour equities.
For fixed income, the outlook is poor (Chart 3b). Bond yields
are at historic lows, with real yields negative across a swathe
of the curve. Duration, which roughly gauges the interest-rate
risk exposure of bonds, is at a multi-year high. Investors are
concerned about credit quality and moral hazard in fiscal policy
as low yields reduce incentives for austerity.
Setting aside the somewhat misleading notion of an ‘aggregate’
shift,6 adherents to the notion of a Great Rotation face a number
of sceptics, and for good reason. The flows evidence that
helped prompt talk of a Great Rotation point to an increase in
bond holdings (Chart 2b), in tandem with equities, and only
moderate reductions in cash.7
Demand for bonds will likely not abate. In the US, the Federal
Reserve has mopped up about 90% of treasury issuance
recently and has no imminent plans of retreating.8 This
should help keep a lid – artificial as it may be – on rising bond
yields. In addition, both banking regulation, through Basel III
requirements, and international reserve management, through
reserve accumulation, are consistent generators of demand for
liquid treasuries.9
The current environment may continue to be equity friendly,
but abundant risks remain. General underlying economic
health continues to be weak in many corners, notwithstanding
a brighter outlook for some core US sectors. A number
of governments continue to walk the tightrope of debt
sustainability. Furthermore, it has been argued that there are
unintended consequences for those seeking ‘bond-like returns’
from equities, as it might incentivise corporate payouts and
buybacks rather than investment in growth and employment.10
Q1’08 Q1’09 Q1’10 Q1’11 Q1’12 Q1’13 Q1’08 Q1’09 Q1’10 Q1’11 Q1’12 Q1’13
Net inflows
Net outflows
Net inflows
Net outflows
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Source: Bloomberg, ICI, World Gold Council
US$mn US$mn
Chart 2: (a) Fund flows into equities are at a multi-year high, but (b) not at the expense of bonds
Global dividend yield Global treasury bond yield 1% inflation 3% inflation
Equities more attractive than
bonds on a yield-basis
Where we are now:
At current yield
level and inflation
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100
0
| 8 |
|
| 6 |
|
| 4 |
|
| 2 |
|
10
12
14
16
18
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg,Thomson Reuters, World Gold Council
Yield (%) Real gain/loss (%)
Basis points
Chart 3: (a) Equities look attractive on the back of a positive yield gap, while (b) intermediate treasury return payoffs
are not flattering
| 3 |
|
| 2 |
|
| 1 |
|
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
24_25
Gold in the Great Rotation
A simple three-asset scenario shows that as the proportion of risk assets moves up the scale
from low to moderate levels, so does gold’s optimal weighting. Using Re-sampled Efficiency,11
we compute the optimal allocation to gold across a rising risk tolerance as an investment
portfolio rotates from bonds to equities. (It must be noted that these results are not in any way
advocating a simple three-asset portfolio mix but use this mix only for illustrative purposes).
Gold’s diversification benefits, as shown in Chart 4a, become more pronounced as the proportion
allocated to equities increases. Contrary to perceived wisdom, the decision to hold gold is not
merely a choice between risk assets and safe-haven gold. Optimal allocations to gold have been
proven to always be positive (non-zero) in diversified portfolios.
Chart 4b mirrors the current environment more closely. It illustrates how gold’s allocation
increases as cash is reduced and allocations flow into bonds and equities, which occurs as
investors’ risk tolerance moves from low levels to moderate levels.
A simple three-asset case
illustrates how gold optimal
allocation increases in a
bond-to-equity rotation
to compensate for the
additional risk investors
incur.
… and a similar result holds
when funds flow out
of cash.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0
0
40
20
60
80
100
Bonds (%) (a)
| (b) |
|
Equities (%)
Chart 4: Optimal allocations to gold increase (a) in a bonds-to-equity rotation, and
| (b) |
|
also when cash moves to both bonds and equities |
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
40
20
60
80
100
Cash (%)
Bonds and equities (%)
Gold’s relative allocation
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: World Gold Council
Gold’s relative allocation
11 Methodology explained in Central bank diversification strategies: Rebalancing from the dollar and euro, 2013.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Focus 2: Why gold is a strategic asset
What constitutes a strategic asset? Simply defined, it is an
asset that helps investors achieve long-term goals. Delineating
along the most fundamental strategic lines, equities are owned
for capital growth, debt for income and liability matching,
and gold for capital preservation. Other assets serve some
or all of these roles with varying degrees of success. Gold’s
capital preservation credentials stem from its ability to act as a
diversifier while guarding against a number of risks, including
inflation, currency and tail risk. Why?
These qualities exist because of gold’s unique fundamental
make-up. Gold’s supply and demand composition translates
into statistical qualities that underpin its important role within
investment portfolios.
• Demand and supply enjoy broad and balanced drivers with
each sector, driven by a unique set of macro-economic
drivers. On top of this, demand and supply are geographically
dispersed. As a result, gold’s correlation to traditional assets
remains low and its volatility profile dampened.
• Gold is virtually indestructible, which has led to a large global
stock. It is also a stock that is geographically dispersed and
held in the poorest as well as the wealthiest nations around
the globe. Despite this above-ground supply – which provides
depth, liquidity and buffers against supply shocks, thus
reducing gold’s volatility – gold is geologically scarce relative
to other real assets. Because incremental additions to its
stock are small and constrained by numerous factors, this
scarcity forms the basis for stable value accretion.
• Gold carries no credit or counterparty risk and is no one’s
liability. These credentials lend themselves to gold’s
performance during periods of market stress, when
correlations to risk assets fall. They also ensure that gold acts
as a global currency and an anchor (albeit unofficially) to other
currencies.
Gold’s strategic benefits have been discussed in more detail in
the following research:
Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors
Gold as a strategic asset for European investors
Gold: alternative investment, foundation asset
Gold: a commodity like no other
Gold: hedging against tail risk
26_27
The previous examples oversimplify portfolios investors may hold. To provide a more realistic
and balanced composition, we show how gold allocations change with a shift from cash to
bonds and equities as well as bonds to equities, using the results from our recent publications.
Chart 5 plots allocations sourced from previous research reports: Gold as a strategic asset for UK
investors, Gold: alternative investment, foundation asset, Gold as a strategic asset for European
investors and Gold as a strategic asset for US investors.
Each chart shows, equivalent to a move from very low risk to moderate risk, that an initial shift
from cash to both bonds and equities takes place as the first stage of a shift unfolds. As more
risk is added a rotation out of bonds into equities would materialise. During both of these phases,
gold’s optimal allocation rises, reflecting its increased diversification benefits. These results
were obtained through analysis over periods covering several business cycles across different
geographies. In each case, a shift into riskier assets warrants a higher optimal allocation to gold.
A more complete portfolio
set-up delivers the same
general results: more risks
requires additional gold…
… regardless of investors’
currency or portfolio
composition.
Gold 1.2% 2.9% 5.1% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4%
Cash to
bonds/
equities
Bonds to
equities
Gold 2.1% 4.7% 7.3% 9.6% 10.3% 9.9%
Cash to
bonds/
equities
Bonds to
equities
Gold 1.3% 3.0% 4.5% 5.7% 6.3% 6.0%
Cash to
bonds/
equities
Bonds to
equities
Gold 0.9% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1% 3.8%
Cash to
bonds/
equities
Bonds to
equities
20
10
30
40
70
50
60
Bonds (%) (a) US dollar
Equities (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
20
10
30
40
70
50
60
Bonds (%) (b) Euro
Equities (%)
Chart 5: Optimal gold allocations increase with risk, as it has been shown for portfolios in: (a) US dollars, (b) euro, (c) sterling,
as well as those including (d) alternative assets such as hedge funds and private equity
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
20
10
30
40
50
20
10
30
40
50
Bonds (%) (c) Sterling
Equities (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Bonds (%) (d) Alternatives
Equities, HF and PE (%)
0 10 20
Bond/equity mix Optimal gold allocation
30 40 50 60
Bond/equity mix Optimal gold allocation
Bond/equity mix Optimal gold allocation Bond/equity mix Optimal gold allocation
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: New Frontier Advisors, World Gold Council
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Bonds: handle with care
The above studies use return, volatility and correlation inputs based on either actual historical
returns over several decades or strategic returns.12 How realistic these are is a subject beyond this
research note. But, using historical returns risks introducing bias into the performance of bonds
going forward. As outlined, current bond yields leave little scope for a continuation of the stellar
and stable returns experienced over the last few decades, despite the suggestion that demand
will not abate quickly. How would amending these assumptions affect the allocation to gold?
Chart 6 shows how a rotation affects the optimal gold weighting in a US portfolio using three
different real return assumptions for bonds (volatility and correlations remain unchanged). Clearly,
gold’s allocation rises regardless of the assumption, but lowering bonds’ expected returns from
25-year historical (highest) to long-term strategic (moderate) to current (lowest) has a significantly
positive impact on the optimal gold weighting.
Further, adjusting return
expectations for fixed
income and cash to reflect
current less rosy market
conditions, results in higher
allocations to gold.
Chart 6: Adjusting bond returns to current market expectations results in higher optimal
allocations to gold
Gold allocation (%)
0
| 2 |
|
| 4 |
|
| 6 |
|
| 8 |
|
10
12
| 4 |
|
5 6 7 8 9 10 |
Historical Strategic
Portfolio volatility (%)
Current
9.9%
7.5%
4.3%
5.7%
3.4%
2.0%
Asset Current real return Strategic real return Historical real return
US cash -1.6% 0.0% 4.4%
US treasuries -1.0% 2.0% 6.9%
US TIPs -0.4% 2.0% 4.5%
US credit 0.7% 3.0% 7.8%
Global treasuries ex US -0.7% 1.4% 6.7%
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Barclays, Credit Suisse, World Gold Council
12 Strategic returns are consistent with very long-term and conservative expected returns and widely accepted risk premia.
Gold’s perennial role
The Great Rotation debate may roll on, and there may be arguments supporting a glacial shift
towards equities – particularly given the risk/reward of many fixed income products. But to the
question of whether a shift from safe assets to riskier assets is negative for gold, we surmise not
to predict how prices may react, but contend that gold’s strategic importance is amplified in such
a scenario. In the long term, gold’s diversification credentials increase portfolio efficiency, both in
good and bad economic times. A shift to riskier assets further promotes gold’s portfolio benefits.
Whether we witness a
‘Great Rotation’ or not,
gold’s importance as a key
portfolio asset remains.
28_29
References
Chart 1: (a) Bonds look poor, while (b) equities appear attractive
| (a) |
|
Chart is using yield to worst and modified duration statistics for the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. |
(b) Shiller PE is a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio defined by current price devided by the average of 10 years
of inflation adjusted earnings.
Chart 3: (a) Equities look attractive on the back of a positive yield gap, while (b) intermediate treasury
return payoffs are not flattering
| (a) |
|
Bond yields are represented by the yield to worst on the Barclays Global Treasuries Index. |
| (b) |
|
Chart represents the total return on a 5 year treasury bond one year from now for numerous interest rate |
scenarios. The two series are deflated by a 1% and 3% inflation assumptions.
Chart 4: Optimal allocations to gold increase (a) in a bonds-to-equity rotation, and (b) also when cash
moves to both bonds and equities
| (a) |
|
The underlying calculations use global bonds (J.P. Morgan), global equities (MSCI) and gold (US$/oz). |
The relative increases in the size of the spheres represents a proportionate increase in gold allocations.
| (b) |
|
The underlying calculations use global bonds (J.P. Morgan), global equities (MSCI), global cash (J.P. Morgan) |
and gold (US$/oz). The relative increases in the size of the spheres represents a proportionate increase in
gold allocations.
Chart 5: Optimal gold allocations increase with risk, as it has been shown for portfolios in: (a) US dollars,
| (b) |
|
euro, (c) sterling, as well as those including (d) alternative assets such as hedge funds and private equity |
The chart shows the bond and equity mix of portfolios across the resampled efficient frontier. The figure in
the golden rectangles at the bottom corresponds to gold’s mid-point optimal allocation for a given equity
allocation range.
Chart 6: Adjusting bond returns to current market expectations results in higher optimal allocations to gold
The current real return for bonds is based on yields minus the same maturity breakeven inflation rate – which is the
average inflation expected by market participants derived by subtracting the yield on inflation-protected bonds from
equivalent Treasury securities. Assets included (in addition to the fixed income indices listed in table 1) are US large
and small cap equities (MSCI), Developed world ex-US equities (MSCI), Emerging market equities (MSCI), global
REITs (FTSE), commodities (S&P) and gold (US$/oz).
Table accompanying Chart 6
Current real returns calculated as current yield-to-worst minus aggregate breakeven inflation rates as of
December 31, 2012 across maturities: US breakeven (Barclays) = 1.89%, Global breakeven (Barclays) = 2.2%.
Strategic return methodology is consistent with previous research. Historical returns encompass the period
December 1987 to December 2012 using annualised monthly returns.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Derivatives
Equities
Bonds
Gold as a
foundation
asset
The issuance of equity and debt securities – claims on assets or future cash flows – is driven
by capital markets and, unlike real assets,1 they are not constrained by physical supply. In fact,
corporations and governments routinely issue unsecured debt and equity securities not linked
directly to any forms of collateral. The lack of a physical backing, coupled with a boom in financial
innovation, has allowed financial assets to grow 10-fold over the past 20 years – well in excess of
a three-fold increase in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the period. And this trend is
unlikely to subside.
In the current environment of easy monetary policy and record growth in financial assets, gold
has become increasingly relevant as an investment that balances risks in other assets. As a real
asset, one that cannot be debased or devalued, gold is seen by many investors as a valuable risk
management and wealth preservation tool. Gold supply is geologically constrained yet readily
available through a broad and liquid market.
However, some investors and market commentators express concerns that gold may be in
a bubble as a result of 12 years of price appreciation. Emerging-markets growth, economic
uncertainty, central-bank demand and constrained supply are some of the reasons why gold has
risen for more than a decade. Even so, gold remains a widely under-owned asset. Gold holdings
account for 1% of all financial assets – a by-product both of its scarcity and the unprecedented
growth in other financial assets. Further, gold’s low ownership rate stands in stark contrast to
levels seen in past decades, as well as what research suggests optimal gold allocations should be.
Financial assets have grown
at an unprecedented pace
for more than 20 years…
… whereas gold holdings
represent only 1% of all
financial assets, despite a
12-year bull run.
IV: Gold holdings: ample room for
growth in a broad and liquid market
While financial assets have grown at an unprecedented
pace, gold holdings remain low, depriving investors of the
portfolio benefits it offers. The share of gold in portfolios can
sustainably increase and provide balance to a global financial
system likely to experience more frequent tail events.
1 A physical asset that derives its value from its intrinsic properties. Real assets include precious metals, commodities, real estate and raw land.
30_31
Financial assets are growing at a rapid and unsustainable rate
There have been huge fluctuations in asset prices over the past decade. Despite the volatility, the
stock of financial assets has almost tripled during that period. Currently at a striking US$149tn,2
the size of financial assets are a multiple of global GDP (Chart 1). This growth has been primarily
led by fixed income markets. Between 2000 and 2012, debt markets have grown three-fold, from
US$25tn to almost US$90tn,3 as a result of ageing demographics in many developed countries,
heightened risk aversion, low interest-rate policies and record government spending to boost ailing
economies. In particular, outstanding US treasury debt more than doubled from US$4.5tn in 2007
to US$10.5tn in 2012 – a large portion of which is held by foreign investors;4 and further, sovereign
debt issuance was by no means restricted to the US. At the same time, global equity markets
have also grown – at a relatively more modest pace of 67% – from US$31tn in 2000 to US$51tn in
2012, partly driven by economic growth in emerging markets and a subsequent increase in initial
public offerings (IPOs).
Between 2000 and 2012,
debt markets have grown
three-fold, to almost
US$90tn, while equity
markets have increased by
US$20tn to US$51tn.
0
| 1 |
|
| 2 |
|
| 3 |
|
| 4 |
|
| 5 |
|
| 6 |
|
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Chart 1: Most financial assets have grown at an unprecedented rate
US$tn GDP/financial assets
1980 1990 2000 2010 June 2012
Fixed income
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Barclay Hedge, BIS, Preqin, World Federation of Exchanges, World Gold Council
Equity Gold Global GDP GDP/asset ratio (rhs)
| 2 |
|
This figure is as of June 2012. See Chart 2 for a detail breakdown of financial assets. |
| 3 |
|
Debt outstanding as of June 2012. |
4 As of December 2012, foreign central banks owned 48% of outstanding treasuries followed by other holders at 38% and Federal Reserve at 14%.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Still, we are only scratching the surface. Innovation in financial markets and a supportive
regulatory environment saw an explosion of assets managed by hedge funds and private equity
firms, as well as an increase in securitised products. Counting securitised products, financial
assets have grown to more than US$200tn.5 And this figure pales in comparison to the notional
size of the derivatives market, estimated at over US$600tn in 2012 by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).6
The private investment stock of gold, in contrast, sits at a remarkably smaller US$1.9tn,7
representing just 1% of financial assets (Chart 2), partly driven by gold’s limited supply, which
has been growing at low rates (Focus 1).
Including derivatives and
securitised products brings
total financial assets to an
astronomical US$200tn…
… while gold accounts for only
only US$1.9tn.
Chart 2: Only 1% of US$149tn of financial assets is currently in gold
Money markets 6%
Fixed income 51%
Equities 37%
Alternative investments 4%
Gold 1%
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: BIS, Hedge Fund Research, J.P. Morgan, Preqin, Thomson Reuters GFMS,
World Federation of Exchanges, World Gold Council
| * |
|
As of June 2012. |
| 5 |
|
McKinsey Global Institute, Mapping global capital markets, August 2011. |
6 IMF, Systemic risk from global financial derivatives, November 2012. Bank of International Settlements (BIS), semi-annual OTC derivative statistics,
November 2012. Notional values may not be the best measure as notional values in most derivative contracts don’t need to be exchanged, but do represent
exposure. A better measure is the gross market value of derivative contracts outstanding, approximately US$27tn for reporting dealers. While a majority
of derivatives are used as a hedging tool, the potential failure of counterparties to service the contract might be disastrous for an institution that thought it
was “de-risking” its operational activities. During the first half of 2012, there were US$3.7 of gross credit exposure amongst just the 55 reporting dealers
participating in the BIS derivatives survey. The notional value of gold derivatives is US$523bn, just 0.1% of the total notional size of the derivatives market.
| 7 |
|
Value based on the average gold price of US$1,651.34/oz during the first half of 2012. |
32_33
Focus 1: How large is the gold market?
By the end of 2012, the above-ground stock of gold was
estimated to be approximately 174,100 tonnes,8 representing
all the gold that has ever been mined, worth more than
US$9.3tn (Chart 3). The largest share (almost half) is held in
jewellery form and is worth more than US$4.6tn. Central banks
collectively hold 30,100 tonnes as part of their foreign reserves,
while bars and coins in the hands of investors (including goldbacked
ETFs) account for one fifth of the above ground stock,
worth US$1.9tn. This is the figure we use to estimate the share
of gold as a percentage of global assets.
| 8 |
|
This computation is based on the 2012 stock figures as provded by Thomson Reuters GFMS. |
9 According to the US geological survey, below-ground stocks only amount to 50,000 tonnes – less than one-third of the above-ground stock.
10 According to Thomson Reuters GFMS and Bloomberg, gold annual production is lower in tonnage terms than silver, copper, tin, nickel, lead
and zinc as well as other base metals.
11 When gold is used for technological applications, it does not enter the market until that device is scrapped and re-used for its materials.
Other forms of gold however, could be re-sold to other participants.
Gold is geologically scarce and fundamentally constrained by
physical supply.9 Gold mine production – which has averaged
2,600 tonnes over the past 10 years, a small fraction of the
production of some other metals,10 increases the above ground
stock at a rate of 1.7% per year. Because gold is virtually
indestructible with only a fraction lost through technological
and industrial use,11 a large portion of the above ground stocks
is readily available and can be sold on the secondary market.
As a result, liquidity in the gold market is unmatched by most
financial assets (Chart 4).
Chart 3: The stock of gold held in investment form
is worth US$1.9tn
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, US Geological Survey,
World Gold Council
Other
24,800 tonnes
14.2%
*Based on the end-2012 volume and 2012 average gold price.
20.7m
20.7m
Daily trading volume (US$bn)
Chart 4: Gold is one of the most liquid assets
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: BIS, CPM Group, German Finance Agency, Japanese MOF,
SIFMA, UK DMO, World Gold Council
US$/euro
US Treasuries
US$/yen
JGBs
US$/sterling
Gold
Euro/yen
S&P 500 stocks
US agencies
UK gilts
German Bunds
Dow Jones (all stocks)
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
12 Bain & Company, A world awash with money, December 2012.
13 Dudley, William C. Solving the too big to fail problem, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, November 2012.
A system vulnerable to the increasing frequency and magnitude
of tail events
The trend of increasing financial assets, by and large, was the result of two extreme situations:
vast capital accumulation by a set of investors on the one hand and increased borrowing amongst
the indebted on the other. Additionally, financial innovation has produced a greater number of
securitised products to pool and sell risk assets that are seemingly of higher quality than their
underlying components would suggest. An overexposure to these assets – especially by financial
institutions – led to the Great Recession.
The government has subsequently issued debt to subsidise the losses in the banking system
while plugging the spending gap left by a deleveraging private sector. This has led to a spate of
sovereign debt crises and economic turmoil. Unconventional monetary policy, as discussed in
our Investment commentary: Q3 2012 has also allowed central banks to purchase unprecedented
quantities of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities – to achieve their goals of
lowering benchmark borrowing rates to artificially low levels and incentivise borrowing in the
private sector. As a result of these policies, financial assets have continued to grow well in excess
of GDP, reaching what some consider ‘critical levels’.12 The question might thus be: Are there
more financial assets than required to ensure a healthy global GDP growth, and is there enough
global GDP to service these financial assets?
Rapid growth in capital markets leads to more capital chasing lower returns, tempting investors
toward disproportionate levels of risk and increasing the frequency of flight-to-quality episodes.
The implication is that this abundance of capital will likely spur investment activity but, at the same
time, create an unstable growth environment – one characterised by frequent pullbacks in risk
assets and large moves in currency markets. In fact, the number and magnitude of tail events has
already increased over the past three decades (Chart 5). This issue is likely to be exacerbated by
the increased contagion risk from cross-border and cross-holdings of large financial institutions –
an important component of the ‘too-big-to-fail’ problem.13
Imbalances in capital
accumulation and leverage,
coupled with financial
innovation, resulted in a
global crisis…
… and have prompted
unprecedented levels
of financial assets relative
to GDP…
… leading to more frequent
and larger tail-risk events.
-60
-50
-30
-40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Chart 5: The frequency and magnitude of negative market events keeps growing
1980–1990 1990–2000 2000–2012
Frequency of monthy returns less than -5%
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Average annual negative return during the period
Negative return (%) Count
34_35
In a recent report, Bain & Co. predicted that a prolonged period of capital super-abundance could
lead to persistently low interest rates and an increasing frequency, size and longevity of asset
bubbles. The huge increase in debt has put global economies on a less than stable growth track.
Financial markets have already seen several negative episodes as a result of unbridled deficits and
growing debts in Europe – with potentially more debt-driven collapses on the horizon.14 Of course,
staying on the sidelines is not a viable solution for investors. Holding large quantities of cash will
erode capital over the long term. Investors must look for portfolio risk management strategies
that can help them balance their search for yield with protection against unprecedented financial
conditions.
Gold should be a larger share of financial assets
Gold prices increased from US$250/oz to US$1,600/oz between 2001 and 2012. At the same
time, annual investment demand has grown from 348 tonnes to 1,538 tonnes. This has led many
observers to believe that the gold market is saturated with investors,15 that it is an over-owned
asset whose price has risen much more than fundamental drivers would dictate. In other words,
that gold is in a bubble. Refuting this mistaken view, in The 10-year gold bull market in perspective,
published in September 2010, we showed how gold’s performance does not have the same
statistical characteristics of well documented historic bubbles. We also discussed the lasting,
structural shifts the gold market has experienced, including a diverse and robust set of supply and
demand dynamics – emerging market growth, economic uncertainty, central bank demand and
constrained supply – that have supported the price trend.
Further, the rise in gold investment demand, as well as for other real assets, should be seen as a
rational response to a flood of financial instruments linked to the success and credit worthiness of
their issuers. The value and security of government debt is predicated on a country’s willingness
and ability to pay back its debt-holders. Stocks and corporate bond prices are rooted in a
company’s performance and its management’s ability to steer the company forward. While the
private sector has had a good track record of earnings growth and debt repayment, the managerial
risk or ’human element‘ embedded in these investments poses a risk to portfolio managers.
Uncertainty and malaise in developed economies and the accompanying aggressive monetary
policies have accentuated the need for a robust asset allocation, one that is better positioned to
withstand swings and systemic shocks. In the context of today’s market environment – one we
expect to remain in place in the foreseeable future – holding gold diversifies portfolios based on
its qualities as a transparent and real asset that lacks the credit and counterparty risk of other
investments.
To balance these risks,
investors need a more
comprehensive riskmanagement
strategy.
Gold’s price rise in the past
12 years should be partly
seen as a rational response
to the rapid growth of
‘paper’ assets…
… such as bonds and equities,
which naturally carry
credit risk.
14 Gross, William H. Investment outlook: damages, PIMCO, October 2012.
15 Wall Street Journal, Is Gold the next bubble?, May 2010.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Portfolio optimisation studies have shown that a 1% portfolio allocation to gold is generally too
low and that higher long-term allocations are optimal for most investors. As summarised in Gold
in the Great Rotation, research by the World Gold Council, Oxford Economics, New Frontier
Advisors, Mercer and J.P. Morgan, among others, shows that investors can greatly benefit from
a long-term strategic allocation to gold – usually between 2% and 10% across US dollars, euro,
pound sterling and yen denominated portfolios (Focus 2).16
Most investors are underallocated
to gold relative
to what research has
found optimal…
16 J.P. Morgan, Gold in asset allocation, July 2012; Mercer, Gold as an asset class for institutional investors, February 2011; New Frontier Advisors,
Gold as a strategic asset, September 2006; World Gold Council, Gold: hedging against tail risk, October 2010; World Gold Council; Gold: alternative
investment foundation asset; New Frontier Advisors, Gold as a strategic asset for European investors; World Gold Council, December 2011; Gold as
a strategic asset for UK investors, July 2012.
17 See Loco London Survey conducted by the LBMA with the Bank of England.
Focus 2: Benefits of holding gold in a portfolio
Gold’s unique supply and demand fundamentals are largely responsible for its main contribution to
investors’ portfolios, namely, risk management and capital preservation.
Gold as a risk-management vehicle
• Increased portfolio diversification through gold’s lower correlation to other assets
Gold’s correlation to other assets is, on average, 0.1 and, as discussed in Gold: a commodity like
no other, it has a relatively low 0.3 correlation to the broader commodity complex
• Reduction in portfolio losses during tail-risk events
Portfolios containing gold consistently outperform portfolios without it as summarised in
Gold: hedging against tail risk
• Addition of a high quality, liquid asset
Gold trading averaged US$240bn per day in the first quarter of 2011:17 higher than the most
liquid equities, German Bunds, UK gilts, US agencies and certain currency pairs (see Liquidity in
the gold market)
Gold as a source of capital preservation
• Gold hedges extreme inflation scenarios like deflation and hyperinflation
In the paper entitled The impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold, Oxford
Economics shows that both environments lead to gold’s relative outperformance of
other assets
• Gold hedges against falls in developed market currencies
Gold has a -0.5 correlation against the US dollar and negative correlation against most other
developed market currencies (see Gold as a hedge against the US dollar)
36_37
Even by historical standards, gold’s current share of financial assets is low. The average ratio of
the investable gold stock to the size of financial assets has fluctuated over time (Chart 6). Gold’s
share of financial assets has been as high as 14% in 1980, the last year of the previous bull
market, and as low as 0.4% in 2000, before the beginning of the current one.
… as well as by historical
standards.
Gold ownership rates in 2000 were depressed as a result of various structural factors that have
subsequently changed: investment inaccessibility, central bank sales and large-producer hedge
books, to name a few. This ratio has risen to 1.2% in 2012, a growing but sustainable trend and
the result of increased ownership and an appreciation in the gold price (Focus 3).18 Despite this
growth, gold’s current share of assets sits far below the 1980’s peak, which was driven not
only by the sharp increase in the gold price but incipient rates of growth in many other financial
instruments. So, while a 14% allocation may prove too high as a strategic holding to many
investors, an increase to a more sustainable level is feasible (Chart 7). The gold market is deep
and liquid enough to support higher global allocations and a growing investor base, and it is liquid
enough to facilitate continued acquisitions.19
But the gold market can
easily and sustainably
grow to a higher
percentage of global
assets.
0
600
400
200
800
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0
| 2 |
|
| 4 |
|
| 6 |
|
| 8 |
|
10
12
14
16
Chart 6: Gold’s share of financial assets has fallen significantly since 1980 despite a
similar inflation-adjusted gold price
Share (%) US$/oz
1980 1980s average 1990s average 2000s average H1 2012
Gold’s share of global investable assets
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Barclay Hedge, BIS, Bloomberg, OECD, Preqin, World Federation of Exchanges, World Gold Council
Inflation adjusted gold price (US$/oz)
Note: Due to data unavailability, gold’s share in 1980 is compared to all non-financial debt.
18 Gold prices increased at a pace of 18.7% per annum (between 2001 and 2011) while private investment stock grew at 3% per annum.
19 The London OTC market clears US$240bn of gold per day with an average transfer size of 7,400oz of gold. This calculation is based on LBMA
estimates of 2012 average of gold transfers and the monthly average amount of gold transferred.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
Focus 3: The importance of sustainable ownership rates
Ownership rates are an important consideration for the sustainability of asset prices. For
example, in 1995, at the start of the dot-com bubble, US equities comprised just 33% of US
investor portfolios but grew to 50% of investor portfolios in just five short years, representing an
unsustainable rate of new investment. The underlying demographic composition or investor risk
tolerance had not sufficiently changed to justify such a rise in equity ownership rates. Instead,
it is clear that equity risk was mispriced, and the market was likely fuelled by momentum and
an exceedingly overoptimistic expectation around earnings growth in the technology sector.20
Today, we are seeing a similar but less dramatic shift in fixed income ownership, as debt’s share
of assets has increased between 1999 and 2012 from approximately 40% to approximately 60%
of financial assets. Investors will likely rebalance their portfolios once the asset mix is deemed
inappropriate for their investment goals.
20 The technology sector became an over-sized portion of US market capitalisation. NASDAQ market capitalisation as a share of total US market
capitalisation grew from 15% in 1994 to 31% in 1999.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Chart 7: Demand would surge if investors re-allocate to a 2% gold allocation
while financial assets grew by 10%
Tonnes
Reference notes are listed at the end of this article.
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council
Gold holdings (2012) Gold demand Potential gold holdings
(2% allocation)
Gold demand
(10% financial asset growth)
*2% is the minimum optimal allocation for most investors. 10% growth is approximately This analysis assumes that the gold price remains at US$1,650/oz.
34,582
21,478
5,606
61,666
Taking a closer look at gold as a strategic asset
Despite a consistent bull market for more than a decade, gold holdings currently represent a small,
sub-optimal portion of financial assets. This ratio is depressed as financial assets have exploded
over the past two decades, fuelled by financial innovation, expansionary monetary policies and
global imbalances in capital accumulation and borrowing. In a globalised economy characterised
by increased cross-border flows, such an expansion of ‘paper’ assets has increased the
frequency and magnitude of tail-risk events. As such, a closer look into strategic gold allocations
is warranted. Gold is a hard asset with a deep and liquid physical market capable of absorbing
considerably higher average allocations. Gold provides a foundation to portfolios, helping investors
protect capital and manage risk more effectively.
In an increasingly risky
world, investors should
consider gold as a strategic
and necessary portfolio
allocation.
38_39
References
Chart 1: Most financial assets have grown at a unsustainable rate
Equity market capitalisation encompasses publically traded REIT securities. Fixed income represents domestic and
international bonds, notes and money market instruments. The value of gold holdings is computed using average gold
price and end of year stock figures. GDP to asset ratio uses end of 2011 global GDP as the World Bank series has only
been updated through the end of 2011.
Chart 2: Only 1% of US$149tn of financial assets is currently in gold
The chart values are as of June 2012. Estimates include the global market capitalisation of all publicly traded stocks
and REITs; the total value of outstanding bonds and money market instruments; total open interest on major
commodity futures plus above ground stocks of precious metals; the assets under management of private equity and
hedge funds; and private holdings of gold bullion. Central bank holdings of gold and bonds were excluded.
Chart 3: The stock of held in investment for is worth US$1.9tn
The stock of gold is based on end of 2012 volume and values are based on 2012 average gold prices. Thomson
Reuters GFMS has not officially update the gold stock figures but 2012 demand figures were used to compute end
of 2012 stock figures. For example, end of 2012 jewellery demand is approximately equal to 2011 stock of jewellery
plus 2012 jewellery demand net of 2012 recycling activity. All other categories were computed by adding 2011 stock
numbers and 2012 demand numbers.
Chart 4: Gold is one of the most liquid assets
Foreign exchange liquidity is based on the BIS tri-annual foreign exchange survey. Government bond liquidity is based
on statistics published by country’s respective debt offices. Daily trading value of gold is based on the loco London
survey conducted by the LBMA and the Bank of England in Q1 2011.
Chart 5: The frequency and magnitude of negative market events keeps growing
The count of monthly returns less than -5% is based on data from a spliced index of the MSCI World (1980 – 1987)
and MSCI AC World (1988 – 2012) indices. Average annual negative return is based on the average negative monthly
return over the period.
Chart 6: Gold’s share of financial assets has fallen significantly since 1980 despite a similar inflationadjusted
gold price
Due to data unavailability, gold’s share of financial assets in 1980 is compared to all non-financial debt or debt that
wasn’t issued by a financial institution. The bars labelled ‘1980’ and ‘H1 2012’ represent gold’s share of assets at the
end of the decade, while the ‘1980s average’, ‘1990s average’, and ‘2000s average’ represent gold’s average share of
assets during the period.
Chart 7: Demand would surge if investors re-allocate to a 2% gold allocation while financial assets
grew by 10%
The 2% re-allocation is based on the minimum bound of the optimal allocation range for most investors. 10% growth
is approximately equal to current growth in financial assets. The analysis assumes that the gold price remains at
US$1650/oz. To maintain the current share, gold holdings need to keep pace with the growth in financial assets.
Gold Investor | Risk management and capital preservation
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Published: April 2013
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