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MediaAlpha (MAX): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?

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MAX Cover Image

MediaAlpha currently trades at $12.19 per share and has shown little upside over the past six months, posting a small loss of 4.6%. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 6.8% gain during that period.

Is now the time to buy MAX? Or does the price properly account for its business quality and fundamentals? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.

Why Does MAX Stock Spark Debate?

Powering nearly 10 million consumer referrals each month in the insurance marketplace, MediaAlpha (NYSE: MAX) operates a technology platform that connects insurance carriers with high-intent consumers shopping for property, casualty, health, and life insurance products.

Two Positive Attributes:

1. Skyrocketing Revenue Shows Strong Momentum

Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Over the last five years, MediaAlpha grew its sales at an excellent 12.7% compounded annual growth rate. Its growth surpassed the average business services company and shows its offerings resonate with customers.

MediaAlpha Quarterly Revenue

2. EPS Surges Higher Over the Last Two Years

Although long-term earnings trends give us the big picture, we like to analyze EPS over a shorter period to see if we are missing a change in the business.

MediaAlpha’s EPS grew at an astounding compounded annual growth rate over the last two years, higher than its 69.6% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

MediaAlpha Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

One Reason to Be Careful:

Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

Free cash flow isn’t a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it’s telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

As you can see below, MediaAlpha’s margin dropped by 3.9 percentage points over the last five years. If its declines continue, it could signal increasing investment needs and capital intensity. MediaAlpha’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 3.5%.

MediaAlpha Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

Final Judgment

MediaAlpha’s positive characteristics outweigh the negatives. With its shares trailing the market in recent months, the stock trades at 8.3× forward P/E (or $12.19 per share). Is now the time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our full research report, it’s free.

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