Technology real estate company Offerpad (NYSE: OPAD) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, but sales fell by 34.5% year on year to $114.1 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $82.5 million was less impressive, coming in 40.3% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.24 per share was 12.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Offerpad (OPAD) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $114.1 million vs analyst estimates of $113.6 million (34.5% year-on-year decline, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): -$0.24 vs analyst estimates of -$0.27 (12.5% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$6.9 million (-6% margin, 39.9% year-on-year growth)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $82.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $138.1 million
- Operating Margin: -6.4%, up from -7.8% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 44.3%, up from 16.7% in the same quarter last year
- Homes Sold: 312, down 191 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $38.71 million
“In 2025, we evolved into a fully integrated, four-solution platform,” said Brian Bair, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Offerpad.
Company Overview
Known for giving homeowners cash offers within 24 hours, Offerpad (NYSE: OPAD) operates a tech-enabled platform specializing in direct home buying and selling solutions.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Over the last five years, Offerpad’s demand was weak and its revenue declined by 11.8% per year. This wasn’t a great result and is a sign of poor business quality.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new product or trend. Offerpad’s recent performance shows its demand remained suppressed as its revenue has declined by 34.3% annually over the last two years. 
Offerpad also discloses its number of homes sold and homes purchased, which clocked in at 312 and 110 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Offerpad’s homes sold averaged 34.2% year-on-year declines while its homes purchased averaged 53.4% year-on-year declines. 
This quarter, Offerpad reported a rather uninspiring 34.5% year-on-year revenue decline to $114.1 million of revenue, in line with Wall Street’s estimates. Company management is currently guiding for a 48.7% year-on-year decline in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to remain flat over the next 12 months. While this projection indicates its newer products and services will catalyze better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.
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Operating Margin
Operating margin is a key measure of profitability. Think of it as net income - the bottom line - excluding the impact of taxes and interest on debt, which are less connected to business fundamentals.
Offerpad’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has generally stayed the same, averaging negative 5.3% over the last two years. Unprofitable consumer discretionary companies that fail to improve their losses or grow sales rapidly deserve extra scrutiny. For the time being, it’s unclear if Offerpad’s business model is sustainable.
This quarter, Offerpad generated a negative 6.4% operating margin. The company's consistent lack of profits raise a flag.
Earnings Per Share
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
Although Offerpad’s full-year earnings are still negative, it reduced its losses and improved its EPS by 47.2% annually over the last five years. The next few quarters will be critical for assessing its long-term profitability.
In Q4, Offerpad reported EPS of negative $0.24, up from negative $0.63 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Offerpad to improve its earnings losses. Analysts forecast its full-year EPS of negative $1.55 will advance to negative $0.53.
Key Takeaways from Offerpad’s Q4 Results
It was good to see Offerpad beat analysts’ EPS expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its revenue guidance for next quarter missed and its EBITDA fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a weaker quarter. The stock traded down 5.5% to $0.78 immediately following the results.
Offerpad’s earnings report left more to be desired. Let’s look forward to see if this quarter has created an opportunity to buy the stock. When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
