Moderna’s fourth quarter results were received positively by the market, reflecting a combination of better-than-expected revenue and effective cost management. Management cited the successful U.S. launch of MNEXT Spike, improved operational efficiency, and disciplined expense controls as key contributors. CEO Stéphane Bancel highlighted that operating expenses fell by 31% year over year, while President Stephen Hoge noted, “MNEXT Spike quickly became our leading product in the U.S.” The leadership acknowledged ongoing challenges, particularly the uncertainty caused by the FDA’s refusal to file letter on the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine, which management described as a source of “real challenges for businesses, patients, and the broader innovation ecosystem.”

Is now the time to buy MRNA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Moderna’s Q4 Earnings Call

• Terence Flynn (Morgan Stanley) asked about the flu vaccine’s regulatory setback and its impact on future cash flow guidance; CFO James Mock said it was too early to assess the long-term financial effect until the FDA provides clarity, but highlighted multiple growth drivers beyond flu.
• Salveen Richter (Goldman Sachs) inquired about the U.S. regulatory path for the flu-COVID combination vaccine and INT cancer program success rates; President Stephen Hoge explained that U.S. filings depend on further FDA discussions, while the highest probability of success for INT is in phase 3 melanoma.
• Eliana Merle (Barclays) questioned European COVID vaccination market dynamics and flu vaccine strain selection; Hoge detailed the competitive landscape and explained that later flu strain selection could offer efficacy advantages, especially in Europe.
• Tyler Van Buren (TD Cowen) sought clarification on higher-than-expected year-end cash balances and future levers to reduce cash costs; Mock attributed cash strength to lower-than-forecast operating expenses, reduced capital expenditures, and improved working capital management.
• Michael Yee (UBS) asked for more detail on the interim analysis process for the phase 3 melanoma study and confidence in norovirus vaccine outcomes; Hoge described the event-driven nature of oncology trial milestones and outlined differences in norovirus vaccine design targeting adult populations.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace and success of MNEXT Spike’s international expansion and regulatory approvals, (2) the outcome of ongoing regulatory reviews for flu and combination vaccines in Europe, Canada, and Australia, and (3) clinical milestone readouts from late-stage oncology and rare disease programs. Continued execution on cost discipline and AI-driven productivity improvements will also be important markers of progress.

Moderna currently trades at $49.69, up from $40.11 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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