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What to expect from Hillman’s (HLMN) Q3 earnings

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Hardware products and merchandising solutions provider Hillman (NASDAQ: HLMN) will be reporting earnings this Monday afternoon. Here’s what to expect.

Hillman beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $442.3 million, up 9.8% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with full-year revenue guidance beating analysts’ expectations and full-year EBITDA guidance beating analysts’ expectations.

Is Hillman a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members.

This quarter, the market is expecting Hillman’s revenue to grow 8.5% year on year, in line with the 8% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year.

Hillman total revenue

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business will stay the course heading into earnings. Hillman has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the last two years.

Looking at Hillman’s peers in the professional tools and equipment segment, some have already reported their Q3 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Fortive delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 7.8%, beating analysts’ expectations by 3.3%, and Lincoln Electric reported revenues up 15.1%, topping estimates by 3.9%. Fortive traded up 6.8% following the results while Lincoln Electric was also up 8.5%.

Read our full analysis of Fortive’s results here and Lincoln Electric’s results here.

In the last twelve months or so, the market has shifted its attention from one area of macro importance to the next (AI disintermediation and AI capex spending to geopolitical conflict, rates, and whether the economy is on solid footing or not). While some of the professional tools and equipment stocks have shown solid performance in this choppy environment, the group has generally underperformed, with share prices down 3.2% on average over the last month. Hillman is up 11.4% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $11.75 (compared to the current share price of $7.84).

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