Schwab Trading Activity Index™: STAX Score Drops Amid March Uncertainty

Schwab clients were sellers of equities in March; Net selling was highest in the Information Technology, Energy, and Health Care sectors

The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 48.36 in March, down from its score of 51.94 in February. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.

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The reading for the four-week period ending March 28, 2025, ranks “moderate low” compared to historic averages.

“Schwab clients decreased their market exposure by offloading equities in March, but those outflows were buoyed somewhat by buying in fixed income and ETFs, which retail traders turned to instead of picking up individual names on dips,” said Alex Coffey, Senior Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. “From an economic data perspective, the first two weeks of the month were disappointing, and although we saw a leveling off by the third week, that momentum stalled as March came to an end.”

Schwab clients stepped back from equities during the March STAX period as stocks slumped to six-month lows amid U.S. policy uncertainty and weaker economic data. The S&P 500 hit its highest level of the period on the very first trading day, March 3, and a steep descent followed through mid-month. Though March started with a solid expansion for the February ISM Manufacturing PMI®, economic data became increasingly disappointing as the days went by and the sharp month-over-month drop of the University of Michigan preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment to 57.9 from February’s 64.7 dialed up investor worries about possible "stagflation," characterized by weak growth and rising prices.

The February nonfarm payrolls report reinforced economic worries, with jobs growth up slightly from January but closely followed by the measure of un- and underemployed workers rising to 8% from 7.5% in January. In another gloomy development, Delta Air Lines (DAL) cut its first quarter profit estimates due to what it said was U.S. economic uncertainty. Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown, but turbulence in the nation’s capital didn't help sentiment on Wall Street.

The Federal Reserve meeting that ended on March 19 featured another rate pause and upbeat words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that appeared to reassure the market, but the Fed's updated economic projections showed expectations of slower growth and higher inflation by the end of the year, reinforcing economic concerns. Those concerns also found traction as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell into negative territory.

Though February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) initially eased price fears with lower-than-expected growth, the core inflation reading in the March 28 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index came in above expectations and the month's STAX reporting period ended on a sour note as the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%.

As concerns over the economy mounted, so did stock market volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) reached nearly 30 by mid-March after entering the month below 20, near the historic average. Though the VIX dipped substantially late in March, it finished the March STAX period above 21 and may have helped draw investors away from growth stocks.

Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:

• AT&T (T)
• MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
• Chevron Corp. (CVX)

About the STAX

The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.

For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim^® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.

About Charles Schwab

At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.

More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.

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