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Wheat Fading Lower on Monday Morning as Forecasts Look Wetter

Wheat is trading with early losses across the three exchanges so far on Monday as the market comes out of the long weekend. The wheat complex held on for marginal gains to head into the long weekend. Chicago SRW futures saw fractional to 2 cent gains on the day, with May down 6 ¾ cents on the week. KC HRW futures were 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher on Thursday, as May fell 17 cents last week. MPLS spring wheat was 3 to 4 ¾ cents in the green, with May up 1 ½ cents last week. 

The next week looks a little wetter for parts of the Southern Plains, with parts of Central Texas through the panhandle and up through parts of Nebraska are seen with nearly 1 inch of precip. We will get our first look at the Crop Progress report from a national level this afternoon. 

 

Export Sales data from Thursday showed just 23,521 MT of old crop wheat sold in the week of 3/26. That was a marketing year low. Mexico has net cancellations to 56,200 MT, with unknown seeing net reductions of 60,100 MT, likely switched to a destination. New crop business was pegged at 272,839 MT, a marketing year high for the 2026/27 crop year. Mexico was the top buyer of 172,200 MT, with 65,000 MT sold to South Korea.

Export Commitments are now at 24.277 MMT, up 13% from last year. That is 99% of USDA’s estimate and behind the 101% average sales pace. Shipments are 20.005 MMT, or 82% of USDA’s projection and ahead of the 80% average pace.

Commitment of Traders data showed CBT wheat specs at a net long for the first time since June 2022 at 8,641 contracts, a 10,875 flip in the week ending on March 31. In KC wheat, managed money was net long 21,517 contracts, a 11,812 contract increase on the week. MPLS wheat spec funds were a record net long of 21,156 contracts. 

May 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.98 1/4, up 3/4 cent, currently up 2 1/4 cents

Jul 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.09 1/2, up 3/4 cent, currently up 2 1/4 cents

May 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.15 3/4, up 2 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents

Jul 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.31, up 2 3/4 cents, currently up 5 3/4 cents

May 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.47 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents

Jul 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.61 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents


On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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