Billionaire hedge fund manager Dan Loeb has built a strong track record at Third Point since he founded the activist fund in 1995, combining opportunistic investing with shareholder activism. Loeb's style is often defined by big bets on fast-growing companies and a readiness to overhaul holdings from one quarter to the next. You could see that clearly in the first quarter of 2025, when Loeb exited Tesla (TSLA) entirely after holding it for just two quarters and shifted into Nvidia (NVDA) instead. Third Point ended Q1 2025 with $6.55 billion spread across 45 stocks, reinforcing Loeb’s status as one of Wall Street’s most closely followed money managers.
By Q4 2025, Loeb was on the move again. Third Point’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows three new positions that point to a tilt toward consumer and international exposure: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Spotify (SPOT), and Alibaba (BABA). According to the filing, Third Point bought 4.73 million shares of Chipotle, 100,000 shares of Spotify, and 825,000 shares of Alibaba during the quarter. Importantly, each purchase came during a tough stretch for the stocks. Chipotle fell more than 5% in Q4, Spotify dropped more than 16%, and Alibaba continued to deal with macroeconomic pressure in China.
What does one of Wall Street's sharpest minds see in these three names that the market may be missing? Let’s find out.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Chipotle is a fast-casual restaurant company known for made-to-order burritos, bowls, and similar menu items. It is built around speed and convenience, with a tight operating model across more than 4,000 mostly company-owned locations.
Over the past 52 weeks, CMG stock is down 29%, but it has started to recover in 2026, up 1.5% year-to-date (YTD).
Even after that pullback, Chipotle still trades at a premium, at roughly 33 times forward earnings versus a sector multiple near 17 times.
In Q4, revenue rose 5% year-over-year (YOY) to about $3 billion, even as comparable restaurant sales fell 2.5% and restaurant-level operating margin slipped to 23.4%. For full-year 2025, revenue increased 5.4% to $11.9 billion while adjusted EPS rose 4.5% to $1.17.
Management is still pushing growth, targeting 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026, with roughly 80% expected to include higher-throughput Chipotlanes. The firm is also expanding internationally through partnerships with Alsea in Mexico and SPC Group in South Korea and Singapore, with the goal of making overseas markets a faster-growing profit driver.
On the customer side, Chipotle is relaunching its Rewards program after passing 21 million members, and it is adding more personalized, AI-driven marketing. Those growth drivers, alongside steady buybacks and margin efforts, give Loeb more than one way to win if traffic improves. Analysts largely agree, with 35 experts rating the stock a consensus “Moderate Buy.” The average price target of $44.84 implies about 19% potential upside from here.
Spotify Technology (SPOT)
Spotify runs the world’s largest audio streaming platform, built on paid subscriptions and a fast-growing ad-supported tier. It also operates a “two-sided marketplace” where labels and creators can pay for more visibility across music and podcasts.
Over the past 52 weeks, SPOT stock is down 23%, and shares are down 16% YTD.
Even with that drop, Spotify still trades at a premium valuation, at roughly 31 times forward earnings versus about 14 times for the sector.
The latest quarter showed how the business is scaling with stronger profitability. Monthly active users rose to 751 million, up 11% YOY, and premium subscribers increased 10% YOY to 290 million. Revenue grew 13% YOY to €4.5 billion, while gross margin hit a record 33.1%. That helped drive operating income of €701 million, and free cash flow of €834 million, taking full-year 2025 free cash flow to €2.9 billion.
Management and Wall Street expect earnings to keep building, with consensus calling for double-digit revenue growth and rising EPS over the next few years. On the product side, Spotify is rolling out AI and multi-format features like AI Playlists in the U.S. and Canada, deeper personalization tools, and Discovery Mode, where artists accept a lower royalty rate in exchange for more algorithmic promotion.
Spotify is also pushing further into video, including a deal to syndicate top video podcasts onto Netflix's (NFLX) platform, which expands premium video ad inventory and boosts brand reach without taking on studio-style content costs.
Analysts largely back the setup, with 36 experts rating SPOT stock as a consensus “Moderate Buy.” The average price target of $677.88 implies about 38% potential upside from here.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba is one of China’s biggest internet companies, with core businesses that include e-commerce marketplaces, logistics, payments, and a cloud unit that is increasingly tied to AI.
BABA stock is up 14% over the past 52 weeks, and up 5% YTD, which helps explain why Loeb has stepped in.
Even after the rebound, Alibaba still trades at 29 times forward earnings versus about 17 times for its sector.
In its latest reported quarter for the period ended Sept. 30, 2025, Alibaba posted revenue of RMB 247.79 billion ($34.8 billion), up 5% YOY, or up 15% on a like-for-like basis excluding Sun Art and Intime. Profitability, however, took a hit as the company spent heavily on quick commerce, user experience, and technology.
Income from operations dropped to RMB 5.36 billion, while adjusted EBITA fell 78% YOY. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 20.9 billion. GAAP diluted earnings came in at RMB 8.75 per ADS, while non-GAAP diluted earnings were RMB 4.36 per ADS, and both were down more than 70% YOY Looking ahead, the next leg of the earnings story is tied to policy and AI.
Beijing’s crackdown on cut-throat discounting in food delivery and instant commerce could reduce subsidy-driven cash burn in one of Alibaba’s most loss-making areas. At the same time, the “AI + Manufacturing” plan — which targets AI adoption across tens of thousands of factories — should help push more demand toward Alibaba Cloud, which is already a leading AI cloud provider in China.
Alibaba is also expected to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) of its AI chip unit, a move that could unlock value and fund the chips that support its cloud and AI efforts. Analysts remain very positive, with BABA stock garnering a consensus “Strong Buy” rating among 24 analysts. The average price target of $197.25 implies about 28% potential upside from current levels.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, Loeb’s new bets on Chipotle, Spotify, and Alibaba look less like wild swings and more like a focused call on resilient growth where sentiment has gotten messy faster than the fundamentals. All three names have clear paths to higher earnings over the next few years, powered by unit expansion, pricing, and AI‑driven operating leverage rather than financial engineering alone. In that kind of setup, the odds probably favor these stocks grinding higher with plenty of volatility along the way, with the biggest upside skew in the ones where fear, not math, is still doing most of the pricing.
On the date of publication, Ebube Jones did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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