Review of the
gold market
After the price correction of the second quarter, the
period under review saw the gold price consolidate,
and then resume the upward trend of the past three
years. The market closed at the high for the quarter of
$418/oz, $25/oz higher than the price at the close of
the second quarter. The average spot price for the
quarter of $402/oz was up by $8/oz on the average
price for the previous quarter. The trading range of
$34/oz showed a reduction in volatility in the price after
the range of $59/oz in the second quarter. See graph
1 "Gold/US$ Spot Price : 2004".
GOLD
Following the second quarter fall in the gold price on
the back of fears of a credit squeeze in China and a
hard landing for the Chinese economy, and the
associated sell-off in commodities that accompanied
this fear, the gold price has regained most of its
strength during the third quarter.
Since the end of the quarter, the price has come close
to the high of $430/oz seen in the first quarter of this
year. Whilst the gold price continues to be most
responsive to movements in the US dollar exchange
rate against the euro, the price has also shown some
independence during the quarter, rising firmly even
when there has been little movement in the currency
markets. This would seem to reflect increased investor
interest in gold as part of a broader move of investment
money towards hard assets. This pattern has been
evident in other markets during this period. This does
not necessarily signal a disconnect from the US dollar
or the US economy and gold is likely to benefit from
dollar weakness in the future. It is rather that the gold
market seems to have found supplementary reasons
for appealing to investors, to the benefit of the price
today.
Once again, the vehicle for interest in gold was
primarily the New York Commodities Exchange
(Comex), and the movement in the dollar gold spot
price reflects increasing interest in gold on the
exchange during the quarter. The net open position at
the end of September reached over 19Moz, and has
remained since then at almost 20Moz net long. This
figure is very close to the all-time high net position on
the Comex of 22.6Moz net long in the first week of
April 2004, and the gold price has tracked this interest
closely. News from the US economy in particular, and
the direction of the US dollar during the balance of this
quarter, will be important factors in the behaviour of
investors towards gold on Comex going forward.
See graph 2 "NY Comex : Nett Open Interest and Gold
Price : 2004".
PHYSICAL DEMAND
The physical market for gold remains relatively
quiet and the market is dependent on investment
demand to clear the supply/demand balance.
Nevertheless, there has been encouraging news
from some areas of a year-on-year recovery in
gold offtake. Demand for gold for jewellery in
Turkey was particularly strong in the first half of
2004, although it should be borne in mind that an
important part of this growth arises from Turkey
winning market share from Italy, the developed
world's largest gold jewellery manufacturer. The
market in mainland China also reported positive
growth due entirely to a new category of modern
18ct gold jewellery introduced by the World Gold
Council to that market. With the end of the
monsoon season and the commencement of the
auspicious period for marriages in India, there has
been some recovery in offtake in the Indian market
in spite of the higher US dollar spot prices.
CURRENCIES
Since early 2004, the US dollar has recovered
from its weakest position in the current cycle of
$1.30 to the euro. For much of this year, the dollar
has traded sideways in a range of $1.18-$1.24 to
the euro. However, most commentators see this
sideways movement as temporary and forecast an
inevitable further decline of the US currency
against both the euro and the yen.
Market forecasts project the dollar between $1.30
and $1.40 against the euro and between Y100 and
Y105 by the end of 2005. Even the exceptions to
these forecasts see the dollar only in a sideways
channel, trading between $1.15 and $1.20, rather
than any measurable strengthening of the US
currency. In structural terms, there are economic
circumstances - particularly in the shape of rising
deficits in the US economy - which would seem to
make it likely that the US dollar should weaken
further, and possibly substantially. In previous
economic cycles, budget and current account
deficits in the US have made recession almost
inevitable in order to bring economic fundamentals
back into balance. However, with the other major
economies (Japan and Europe) showing lower
growth rates and more serious economic structural
problems, and with the significant role played in
global trade flows today by China, it is not yet
certain that recession is quite as inevitable.
See graph 3 "US$/Euro Exchange Rate : 2001-
2004
Quarterly Report September 2004 www.AngloGoldAshanti.com
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